Polish parliamentary election, 2015

Polish parliamentary election, 2015

25 October 2015

All 460 seats to the Sejm of Poland 231 seats are needed for a majority in the Sejm All 100 seats to the Senate of Poland Turnout 50.92%   First party Second party Third party   Leader Beata Szydło (PM candidate)[1][2] Ewa Kopacz Paweł Kukiz Party PiS PO Kukiz'15 Leader since 20 June 2015 8 November 2014 28 July 2015 Leader's seat 12 – Chrzanów 19 – Warsaw I 19 – Warsaw I Last election 157 seats, 29.89% 207 seats, 39.18% Did not exist Seats before 134 197 0 Seats won 235 138 42 Seat change 101 59 42 Popular vote 5,711,687 3,661,474 1,339,094 Percentage 37.58% 24.09% 8.81% Swing 7.69% 15.09% New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Ryszard Petru Janusz Piechociński Ryszard Galla Party .N PSL MN Leader since 31 May 2015 17 November 2012 25 September 2005 Leader's seat 19 – Warsaw I 20 – Warsaw II (lost re-election) 21 - Opole Last election Did not exist 28 seats, 8.36% 1 seat, 0.19% Seats before 0 38 1 Seats won 28 16 1 Seat change 28 22 Popular vote 1,155,370 779,875 27,530 Percentage 7.60% 5.13% 0.18% Swing New party 3.23% 0.01%

Powiats with party plurality ■ – Law and Justice ■ – Civic Platform ■ – Polish People's Party

Prime Minister before election Ewa Kopacz PO Elected Prime Minister Beata Szydło PiS

Parliamentary elections to both the Sejm and Senate were held in Poland on 25 October 2015.

The election was won by the largest opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) with 37.6% of the vote against the governing Civic Platform (PO), which achieved 24.1%. Beata Szydło succeeded Ewa Kopacz as Prime minister of Poland, and formed a one-party cabinet.

Official results, announced on 27 October, gave the conservative Law and Justice Party a majority, with 235 of 460 seats (51 percent).^[3]

It was the first European election since the Norway 1993 elections in which the two largest parties fielded a female candidate as leader, and the second election in history (also since Norway 1993) where more than three parties fielded female leadership candidates. It was also the first election in Poland since the introduction of liberal democracy in 1989 that a party won an absolute majority in parliament.

Electoral system

The process of election for the Sejm is through open party-list proportional representation via the D'hondt method in multi-seat constituencies, with a 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions (requirements waived for national minorities). The senate is elected using first-past-the-post voting in single-member districts.^[4] To be included on a ballot, a senate candidate must present 2,000 signatures of support from their constituents.^[5] For Sejm elections, the threshold is 5,000 signatures per constituency, though that requirement is waived for parties who have already registered lists in at least half of all constituencies (21 out of 41 as of this election).^[6]

Overall, the Sejm includes 460 MPs. Should a party have 231 or more deputies in Parliament, it has an absolute majority and could thus govern autonomously, without a coalition partner. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 307 deputies.

Election date

The date of the election, 25 October, was set by the previous President of Poland, Bronisław Komorowski.^[7] The latest possible date for the election to be held was in November 2015, four years after the previous election. Prior to the announcement of the election date, the most likely dates were thought to be in October or November.

In the previous parliamentary elections in 2011 the Civic Platform–Polish People's Party coalition government continued, which had been in power since 2007. All 460 seats in the Sejm and 100 seats in the Senate were up for election.

Parties standing in the election

Nationwide committees

Party		Leader	Ideologies	Political spectrum	Political groups of the European Parliament
	Civic Platform (PO)	Ewa Kopacz	Christian democracy,[8][9][10] Pro-Europeanism, moderate conservatism	Centre [11][12][13]	European People's Party Group (EPP)
	Law and Justice (PiS) • Solidary Poland (SP) • Poland Together – United Right (PRZP) • Right Wing of the Republic (PRz)	Jarosław Kaczyński Beata Szydło (PM candidate)	National conservatism, Social conservatism, Euroscepticism, Statism[14]	Centre-right[15][16][17] to Right-wing[18][19][20][21]	European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
	United Left[22][23][24][25] (ZL) • Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) • Your Movement (TR) • Polish Socialist Party (PPS) • Labour Union (UP) • The Greens (Zieloni) • Polish Labour Party[26] (PPP)	Barbara Nowacka	Social democracy, Social liberalism, Social progressivism, Green politics, Democratic socialism (minority), Feminism[23][26][27][28]	Centre-left to Left-wing	Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
	Polish People's Party (PSL)	Janusz Piechociński	Christian democracy, strongly based around Agrarianism, Conservatism	Centre-right	European People's Party Group (EPP)
	Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Liberty and Hope (KORWiN)	Janusz Korwin-Mikke	Right libertarianism, Anti-immigration, Hard-Euroscepticism, Paleolibertarianism[29]	Right-wing[30]	Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD)
Parties not in the Sejm before the election are below
	Kukiz'15 (K'15)	Paweł Kukiz	Populism, Anti-establishment, Anti-particracy[31]	Big tent[32] to Right-wing[33]
	.Modern (.N)	Ryszard Petru	Social liberalism, partial economic liberalism, Pro-Europeanism,	Centrism to centre-left
	Together (Razem)	collective leadership	Democratic socialism, promotion of the Welfare state	Left-wing

Regional committees

Party		Leader	Ideology	Political spectrum	Political groups of the European Parliament
	German Minority Electoral Committee (MN)	Ryszard Galla	Regionalism, German minority interests	Centre
Parties not in the Sejm before the election are below
	Congress of the New Right (KNP)	Michał Marusik	Right libertarianism, New right, Euroscepticism	Right-wing	Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)
	Single-member district – Nonpartisan (JOW Bezpartyjni)	Robert Raczyński	Pro single-member constituency	Big tent
	Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga (KWW ZS)	Zbigniew Stonoga	Anti-communism, Civil libertarianism, Populism	Big tent
	Social Movement of the Republic of Poland (RS RP)	Sławomir Izdebski	Agrarian socialism, Left-wing populism	Left-wing to Far-left
	United for Silesia (ZdŚ)	Dietmar Brehmer	Silesian regionalism, Fiscal federalism	Radical centre
	Self-Defence (Samoobrona)	Lech Kuropatwiński	Agrarianism, Left-wing nationalism	Left-wing
	God Bless You! (SzB!)	Grzegorz Braun	Monarchism, Traditionalism, Ordoliberalism	Right-wing
	Citizens to Parliament (OdP)	Jan Zbigniew Potocki	Liberal democracy	Big tent

Opinion polls

Election polls

Results

The opposition party, Law and Justice won the election with 37.58% of the vote against the governing Civic Platform, which gained a 24.09% share.^[34] Beata Szydło became the new Prime Minister, succeeding Ewa Kopacz.^[35][36]

Results of the Sejm election by electoral district. Blue represents Law and Justice, and orange Civic Platform.

Results of the Senate election by single-mandate districts.Blue represents Law and Justice, orange - Civic Platform, green - Polish People Party, grey - independents.

Results of elections 1991–2015

 Summary of the 25 October 2015 Polish parliamentary election results^[37]

Parties		Sejm					Senate
		Votes	%	±%	Seats	±	Seats	±
	Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS)	5,711,687	37.58	7.69	235 / 460	78	61 / 100	30
	Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska, PO)	3,661,474	24.09	15.09	138 / 460	69	34 / 100	34
	Kukiz'15 (K'15)	1,339,094	8.81		42 / 460	42	—
	Modern (Nowoczesna, .N)	1,155,370	7.60		28 / 460	28	—
	United Left (Zjednoczona Lewica, ZL)	1,147,102	7.55	11.26	—[lower-alpha 1]	67	—
	Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL)	779,875	5.13	3.23	16 / 460	12	1 / 100	1
	KORWiN	722,999	4.76		—		—
	Together (Partia Razem)	550,349	3.62		—		—
Regional committees
	Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga (KWW ZS)	42,731	0.28		—		—
	German Minority (Mniejszość Niemiecka, MN)	27,530	0.18	0.01	1 / 460		—
	United for Silesia (Zjednoczeni dla Śląska, ZdŚ)	18,668	0.12		—		—
	JOW Bezpartyjni	15,656	0.10		—		—
	Committee of Grzegorz Braun "God Bless You!" (Szczęść Boże!)	13,113	0.09		—		—
	Congress of the New Right (Kongres Nowej Prawicy, KNP)	4,852	0.03	1.03	—		—
	Self-Defence (Samoobrona)	4,266	0.03	0.04	—		—
	Social Movement of the Republic of Poland (Ruch Społeczny)	3,941	0.03		—		—
	Citizens to Parliament (Obywatele do Parlamentu, OdP)	1,964	0.01		—		—
	Independents (Niezależni)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	4 / 100
Total		15,200,671	100		460		100

Notes

1. United Left was running as a coalition, therefore was subject to an 8% election threshold rather than 5% for single parties.

The perceived winner of the election was Law and Justice, which made history as the first and only party in Poland to win majority government in a free election, since 1991. The other parties considered winners were two newcomer parties, Kukiz's Movement (3rd place) and Ryszard Petru's, Modern party (4th place).

On the other hand, the losers were Civic Platform - ending their eight years of political dominance, with their worst outcome for a parliamentary election in 10 years. Other perceived losers, included the Polish People's Party, which with its worst result in nearly 25 years (5.13%), barely scraped into the Sejm; and especially the Democratic Left Alliance, Poland's largest left-wing party and dominant group of the United Left, which for the first time in a quarter century, would not be represented in the national parliament.

Reactions

Political analysts noted that the election marked the first time in the postcommunist era that a political party received enough votes to form a majority government.^[38][39] The BBC News suggested that Law and Justice's strategy of putting forward a candidate more politically moderate than its outspoken leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, was a "winning formula" in the election, but also noted that Kaczyński could step into the role of prime minister after the election.^[39]

Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz swiftly conceded defeat after the exit polls were released, as Kaczyński declared victory and hailed his party's historic majority.^[40] Kaczyński also paid tribute to his late brother, President Lech Kaczyński, who died in the 2010 plane crash.^[36]

See also

• History of Poland (1989–present)
• List of political parties in Poland
• Polish constitutional crisis, 2015

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