Catalan parliamentary election, 2003

Catalan parliamentary election, 2003

16 November 2003

All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 5,307,837 0.3% Turnout 3,319,276 (62.5%) 3.3 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Pasqual Maragall Artur Mas Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira Party PSC CiU ERC Leader since 6 March 1999 7 January 2002[1] 25 November 1996 Last election 52 seats, 37.9% 56 seats, 37.7% 12 seats, 8.7% Seats won 42 46 23 Seat change 10 10 11 Popular vote 1,031,454 1,024,425 544,324 Percentage 31.2% 30.9% 16.4% Swing 6.7 pp 6.8 pp 7.7 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Josep Piqué Joan Saura Party PPC ICV–EUiA Leader since 4 September 2003 26 November 2000 Last election 12 seats, 9.5% 3 seats, 3.9%[lower-alpha 1] Seats won 15 9 Seat change 3 6 Popular vote 393,499 241,163 Percentage 11.9% 7.3% Swing 2.4 pp 3.4 pp

Graphic of the results in the Catalan Parliament election, 2003, based in constituencies.

President before election Jordi Pujol CiU Elected President Pasqual Maragall PSC

The 2003 Catalan parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 16 November 2003, to elect the 7th Parliament of Catalonia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia. At stake were all 135 seats in the Parliament, determining the President of Catalonia.

This election marked a change for all Catalan political parties due to Catalan President Jordi Pujol's decision not to seek a seventh term in office and to retire from active politics. The election results were a great disappointment for Pasqual Maragall's Socialists' Party of Catalonia, which again saw Convergence and Union winning a plurality of seats despite them winning the most votes by a margin of just 0.3%. Opinion polls earlier in the year had predicted a much larger victory for Maragall, but his lead over CiU had begun to narrow as the election grew nearer. ERC was the perceived true victor of the election, doubling its 1999 figures and scoring the best results in its recent history, both in terms of seats (23 of 135) and votes (16.4%), up from 11 seats and 8.7%.

As Pujol's successor Artur Mas did not won a majority large enough to renew his party pact with the People's Party of Catalonia, which had kept Pujol in power since 1995, an alliance between the Socialists' Party of Catalonia, Republican Left of Catalonia and Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left resulted in the Catalan tripartite government. Ironically, despite losing 10 seats and 150,000 votes respect to the 1999 election, Maragall became the first center-left President of Catalonia, ending with 23 years of Convergence and Union government.

Electoral system

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected in 4 multi-member districts, corresponding to Catalonia's four provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation. As the community did not have an electoral law of its own passed into law at the time of the 2003 election, the electoral system came regulated under the community's Statute of Autonomy rules, and subsidiarily, under the Spanish general electoral law (Organic Law 5/1985, of the General Electoral Regime). As a result of the lack of an autonomous electoral law, seats were allocated to districts through specific Laws or Decrees for each election. For the 2003 election, seats were distributed as follows: Barcelona (85), Girona (17), Lleida (15) and Tarragona (18).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[2][3]

Background

The retirement of Jordi Pujol as CiU candidate paved the way for Artur Mas, then Chief Counsellor (Conseller en cap, akin to a Vice-president; he was known colloquially as the Dauphin), as the culmination of a long successory process.

In 1999, because of the PSC growth, Convergence and Union had lost the vote share for the first time, but had won the most seats due to the disproportionate allocation of seats in Girona, Lleida and Tarragona respect to Barcelona. Thanks to the support of the PPC, Pujol had been able to be re-elected to a sixth term in office. In spite of this, and despite Pujol's approval ratings remaining high, rumours about his possible retirement and a desire for change had resulted in CiU trailing the PSC in opinion polls for the entire legislature, with a lead nearly into the double digits by mid-to-late 2002. From mid-2003, however, the Socialist lead had begun to narrow to the point that speculation arose about a possible reenactment of the 1999 results.

ERC was in almost constant growth since the 1988 election, and had become a political force able to break through the dominant two-party system in Catalonia.

Initiative for Catalonia Greens and United and Alternative Left had run separately in the previous election, but ran together in a party coalition for this election.

Parties

• Convergència i Unió (CiU, Convergence and Union). Presidential candidate: Artur Mas. Union of the Catalan nationalist, fiscally liberal Democratic Convergence of Catalonia and the conservative Democratic Union of Catalonia.
• Socialists' Party of Catalonia-Citizens for Change (PSC-CpC). Presidential candidate: Pasqual Maragall. Social democratic. Affiliated to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE).
• Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC, Republican Left of Catalonia). Presidential candidate: Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira. Catalan republican and independentist, left-wing.
• People's Party of Catalonia (PPC). Presidential candidate: Josep Piqué. The main party of the centre-right in Spain.
• Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV-EUiA). Presidential candidate: Joan Saura. Green (eco-socialist) and radical left.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSC	CiU	PPC	ERC	ICV	EUiA	Oth.	Lead
16 Nov 2003	Regional Election	31.2	30.9	11.9	16.4	7.3	w. ICV	2.3	0.3
16 Nov	Ipsos-Eco	32.3	29.4	10.3	17.6	7.6	w. ICV	2.8	2.9
16 Nov	Gallup	35.1	29.4	9.6	15.7	8.0	w. ICV	2.2	5.7
16 Nov	Sigma-2	34.3	30.6	11.3	15.2	6.7	w. ICV	1.9	3.7
Exit polls
10 Nov	Celeste-Tel	36.3	34.3	10.7	11.9	5.3	w. ICV	1.5	2.0
8 Nov	DEP	34.7	35.8	9.7	13.8	4.6	w. ICV	1.4	1.1
3–6 Nov	Noxa	36.2	33.1	9.5	13.0	6.9	w. ICV	1.3	3.1
5 Nov	Celeste-Tel	37.1	31.5	11.1	13.1	5.5	w. ICV	1.7	5.6
3–5 Nov	Sigma-2	35.0	32.2	12.4	12.8	5.9	w. ICV	1.7	2.8
1–5 Nov	Vox Pública	36.5	30.9	10.0	13.7	6.9	w. ICV	2.0	5.6
31 Oct–2 Nov	Opina	34.5	32.5	10.5	12.5	6.5	w. ICV	3.5	2.0
31 Oct	Line-Staff	35.5	30.0	12.0	13.0	7.0	w. ICV	2.5	5.5
31 Oct	Opina	34.5	34.0	10.0	12.5	6.5	w. ICV	2.5	0.5
20–27 Oct	Demoscopia	36.1	33.2	10.5	12.0	7.5	w. ICV	0.7	2.9
13–26 Oct	CIS	34.4	32.4	11.1	12.6	7.4	w. ICV	2.1	2.0
7 Oct	Feedback	35.4	34.0	9.9	13.0	6.1	w. ICV	1.6	1.4
29 Sep–1 Oct	Vox Pública	37.0	33.0	8.9	13.3	5.7	w. ICV	2.1	4.0
10–11 Sep	Noxa	36.4	33.7	7.8	15.1	5.9	w. ICV	1.1	2.7
7–10 Jul	Noxa	36.3	33.7	7.8	14.5	5.9	w. ICV	1.8	2.6
25–27 Jun	Vox Pública	38.8	31.6	9.5	14.0	4.2	w. ICV	1.9	7.2
31 Mar–1 Apr	Vox Pública	41.0	32.1	7.0	13.4	4.4	w. ICV	2.1	8.9
5–7 Mar	Opina	38.0	33.0	9.0	14.0	5.0	w. ICV	1.0	5.0
13–15 Jan	Vox Pública	40.5	32.6	8.3	12.4	4.0	w. ICV	2.2	7.9
7–11 Jan	Noxa	43.0	34.7	7.8	10.7	2.2	w. ICV	1.6	8.3
7–10 Jan	CES	37.3	35.7	9.8	11.9	3.5	w. ICV	1.8	1.6
2003
31 Dec	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	40.0	31.5	9.0	12.5	5.5	w. ICV	1.5	8.5
22 Oct	La Vanguardia	39.0	30.5	9.5	14.0	3.0		4.0	8.5
7–9 Oct	Vox Pública	40.5	32.4	8.8	12.4	2.9	1.0	2.0	8.1
9 Sep–9 Oct	CIS	33.6	35.2	9.6	11.3	6.5		3.8	1.6
25–27 Jun	Vox Pública	40.5	33.0	8.0	12.0	3.3	1.0	2.2	7.5
15–17 Apr	Vox Pública	40.2	34.1	8.0	10.3	3.2	1.4	2.8	6.1
11–16 Apr	Opina	35.0	36.0	10.2	11.5	3.0		4.3	1.0
8 Apr	La Vanguardia	40.5	33.0	9.5	11.0	2.5		3.5	7.5
11–14 Mar	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	40.0	33.0	9.5	11.0	3.0	1.5	2.0	7.0
4–5 Feb	Vox Pública	39.4	35.6	8.7	10.3	2.6	1.2	2.2	3.8
2002
20–22 Nov	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	39.0	35.0	9.0	9.5	2.5	1.5	3.5	4.0
23–25 Oct	Vox Pública	36.8	36.1	8.4	12.3	2.8	1.4	2.2	0.7
23 Oct	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	39.5	36.0	7.5	10.5	2.5	1.5	2.5	3.5
28–30 Jun	Vox Pública	37.2	36.8	8.3	11.0	3.3	1.5	1.9	0.4
12–14 Jun	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	39.0	35.5	8.3	10.5	3.0	1.3	2.4	3.5
19–20 Apr	Vox Pública	39.2	35.2	9.5	9.6	2.6	1.0	2.9	4.0
3–26 Mar	CIS	37.7	34.6	10.3	10.8	3.9	1.1	1.6	3.1
28 Feb–2 Mar	Vox Pública[lower-alpha 2]	39.5	37.0	9.3	8.3	3.0	1.3	1.6	2.5
1–2 Feb	Vox Pública	37.5	36.6	9.5	10.5	2.8	0.8	2.3	0.9
2001
27–29 Nov	Vox Pública	40.0	37.5					22.5	2.5
6 Nov	Opina	37.0	36.0	10.5	9.5	2.5		4.5	1.0
1–2 Nov	Vox Pública	37.6	37.7	9.0	9.5	1.6	1.4	3.2	0.1
12 Mar 2000	General Election	34.1	28.8	22.8	5.6	3.5	2.2	3.0	4.3
2000
17 Oct 1999	Regional Election	37.9	37.7	9.5	8.7	2.5	1.4	2.3	0.2

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

68 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSC	CiU	PPC	ERC	ICV	EUiA	Others
16 Nov 2003	Regional Election	42	46	15	23	9	w. ICV	0
16 Nov	Ipsos-Eco	44−46	43−45	12−14	24−26	8−9	w. ICV	0
16 Nov	Gallup	47−49	43−45	12	22−23	7−9	w. ICV	0
16 Nov	Sigma-2	46−47	45−46	14−15	22	6	w. ICV	0
Exit polls
10 Nov	Celeste-Tel	48−51	48−49	13−15	17−18	5−6	w. ICV	0
8 Nov	DEP	45−48	50−54	11−12	18−21	3−5	w. ICV	0
3–6 Nov	Noxa	49−50	48−49	12	18−19	6−7	w. ICV	0
5 Nov	Celeste-Tel	49−50	45−47	14−15	18−19	6−7	w. ICV	0
3–5 Nov	Sigma-2	46−49	46−49	15−16	18−20	5−6	w. ICV	0
1–5 Nov	Vox Pública	50−51	45−47	12−13	19−20	7−8	w. ICV	0
31 Oct–2 Nov	Opina	48−50	47−49	13	17−19	7	w. ICV	0
31 Oct	Line-Staff	49	44−46	16	17−18	7−8	w. ICV	0
31 Oct	Opina	47	49−50	12−13	19	7	w. ICV	0
20–27 Oct	Demoscopia	48−49	49	13	18−19	6	w. ICV	0
13–26 Oct	CIS	47	48	14	18	8	w. ICV	0
7 Oct	Feedback	47	49	14	19	6	w. ICV	0
29 Sep–1 Oct	Vox Pública	50−53	45−49	11−12	18−19	5	w. ICV	0
10–11 Sep	Noxa	49−52	46−49	9−10	22−23	5	w. ICV	0
7–10 Jul	Noxa	49−52	48−51	9−10	20−21	5	w. ICV	0
25–27 Jun	Vox Pública	54−55	44−45	12−13	20−21	4	w. ICV	0
31 Mar–1 Apr	Vox Pública	56−57	46−48	7−8	19−20	4−5	w. ICV	0
5–7 Mar	Opina	50−51	48−51	11−12	18−21	4	w. ICV	0
13–15 Jan	Vox Pública	55−57	48−50	9−10	17−18	4	w. ICV	0
7–11 Jan	Noxa	57	51	10	15	2	w. ICV	0
7–10 Jan	CES	52−53	51−52	12	16−17	2	w. ICV	0
2003
22 Oct	La Vanguardia	55−57	44−46	11−13	19−20	3	0	0
7–9 Oct	Vox Pública	55−57	47−49	10−12	16−18	3−4	0	0
22 Sep	La Vanguardia	56	49	9	20	1	0	0
8 Apr	La Vanguardia	55−57	48−50	12−13	15−16	0−2	0	0
2002
17 Aug	La Vanguardia	54−56	48−50	12−13	15−16	2−3	0	0
29 May	La Vanguardia	52−53	50−51	13−14	15−16	3	0	0
3–26 Mar	CIS	52	51	13	16	3	0	0
2001
6 Nov	Opina	51	54	14	13	3	0	0
2000
17 Oct 1999	Regional Election	52	56	12	12	3	0	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 16 November 2003 Catalan Parliament election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia-Citizens for Change (PSC-CpC)	1,031,454	31.16	6.69	42	10
	Convergence and Union (CiU)	1,024,425	30.94	6.76	46	10
	Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)	544,324	16.44	7.77	23	11
	People's Party of Catalonia (PPC)	393,499	11.89	2.38	15	3
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV-EUiA)[lower-alpha 1]	241,163	7.28	3.35	9	6
	The Greens-The Ecologist Alternative (EV-AE)	18,470	0.56	New	0	±0
	Platform for Catalonia (PxC)	4,892	0.15	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI)	4,226	0.13	0.04	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		17,818	0.54	–	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	2,580	0.08	New	0	±0
	Unsubmissive Seats (Ei)	2,220	0.07	New	0	±0
	Catalan State (EC)	1,890	0.06	±0.00	0	±0
	The Greens-Green Alternative (EV-AV)	1,886	0.06	0.20	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	1,714	0.05	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	1,647	0.05	0.01	0	±0
	Another Democracy is Possible (OtraDem)	1,386	0.04	New	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)	1,073	0.03	0.01	0	±0
	Caló Nationalist Party (PNCA)	812	0.02	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	804	0.02	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Struggle (LI (LIT-CI))	802	0.02	±0.00	0	±0
	Spaniards Under Separatism (EBS)	603	0.02	New	0	±0
	Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB)	401	0.01	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	30,212	0.91	0.02
Total		3,310,483	100.00		135	±0
Valid votes		3,310,483	99.74	0.01
Invalid votes		8,793	0.26	0.01
Votes cast / turnout		3,319,276	62.54	3.34
Abstentions		1,988,561	37.46	3.34
Registered voters		5,307,837
Source(s): Department of Interior and Institutional Relations Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PSC-CpC			31.16%
CiU			30.94%
ERC			16.44%
PPC			11.89%
ICV-EUiA			7.28%
Others			1.38%
Blank ballots			0.91%

Parliamentary seats
CiU			34.07%
PSC-CpC			31.11%
ERC			17.04%
PPC			11.11%
ICV-EUiA			6.67%

Results by province

Party			BC	GI	LL	TA	Total
	PSC	S	29	4	4	5	42
		V	33.2	23.7	22.5	28.2	31.2
	CiU	S	25	7	7	7	46
		V	28.8	38.7	41.4	33.8	30.9
	ERC	S	13	4	3	3	23
		V	15.2	21.9	19.9	19.0	16.4
	PPC	S	11	1	1	2	15
		V	12.6	8.1	9.7	11.8	11.9
	ICV-EUiA	S	7	1	0	1	9
		V	8.0	5.3	4.4	5.2	7.3
	Others	V	1.3	1.5	1.1	1.0	1.4
	Blank		0.9	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.9
	Total seats		85	17	15	18	135
Turnout			62.1	65.3	65.5	61.7	62.5

Results by comarques

Comarque	PSC	CiU	ERC	PPC	ICV	Lead	Turnout

Alt Camp	23.9	40.6	21.8	7.8	4.2	−16.7	65.6
Alt Empordà	24.3	37.8	20.9	10.8	4.0	−13.5	63.7
Alt Penedès	27.5	37.8	20.2	7.5	5.4	−10.3	68.9
Alt Urgell	20.9	44.9	20.8	8.0	4.1	−24.0	64.7
Alta Ribagorça	32.1	42.2	13.7	6.2	3.8	−10.1	65.1
Anoia	29.0	35.7	18.6	9.6	5.2	−6.7	63.7
Bages	25.8	39.5	20.5	7.0	5.5	−13.7	66.5
Baix Camp	28.3	33.2	19.2	12.2	5.2	−4.9	59.2
Baix Ebre	28.0	30.6	23.8	9.7	5.5	−2.6	64.4
Baix Empordà	26.7	38.2	19.6	7.7	5.4	−11.5	64.5
Baix Llobregat	40.6	22.6	12.1	12.8	9.3	+18.0	59.4
Baix Penedès	33.8	32.5	14.2	12.4	4.8	+1.3	58.8
Barcelonès	33.9	26.2	14.0	14.9	8.7	+7.7	63.8
Berguedà	22.6	43.3	23.6	5.4	3.6	−19.7	70.8
Cerdanya	18.6	43.4	22.8	9.1	3.7	−20.6	63.3
Conca de Barberà	16.9	42.2	28.4	6.5	4.4	−13.8	68.8
Garraf	33.1	29.7	15.3	13.1	6.9	+3.4	60.5
Garrigues	18.2	45.7	24.7	6.5	3.4	−21.0	73.2
Garrotxa	18.6	45.5	24.4	5.0	4.4	−21.1	72.3
Gironès	25.3	33.6	23.4	8.3	6.9	−8.3	67.5
Maresme	26.8	35.3	17.3	11.8	6.6	−8.5	64.3
Montsià	26.4	37.6	20.7	8.3	5.1	−11.2	65.2
Noguera	19.0	45.9	20.6	9.1	3.5	−25.3	71.9
Osona	15.7	44.6	28.0	5.0	4.5	−16.6	72.7
Pallars Jussà	24.7	46.4	17.7	5.4	4.3	−21.7	68.4
Pallars Sobirà	24.4	45.5	19.4	5.0	4.3	−21.1	72.3
Pla de l'Estany	12.9	45.5	29.7	5.3	4.7	−15.8	71.7
Pla d'Urgell	19.5	46.1	22.2	7.0	3.6	−23.9	73.3
Priorat	20.3	38.6	29.4	5.4	4.8	−9.2	76.1
Ribera d'Ebre	23.7	37.2	26.3	6.5	4.8	−10.9	73.7
Ripollès	20.1	45.8	22.4	4.7	4.6	−23.4	72.9
Segarra	13.9	41.5	27.2	8.9	3.9	−14.3	70.3
Segrià	26.3	37.1	17.1	12.1	5.2	−11.0	63.1
Selva	25.0	38.9	19.9	8.5	5.6	−13.9	62.2
Solsonès	14.8	49.4	24.5	5.8	3.5	−24.9	71.4
Tarragonès	30.9	30.4	15.0	15.9	5.9	+0.5	60.0
Terra Alta	23.2	43.9	16.9	11.3	3.2	−20.7	76.8
Urgell	17.4	42.8	25.5	8.6	3.7	−17.3	70.7
Val d'Aran	35.8	37.4	7.3	13.9	3.1	−1.6	59.3
Vallès Occidental	35.6	27.7	14.5	11.1	8.7	+7.9	60.4
Vallès Oriental	31.3	33.4	16.0	10.3	7.1	−2.1	62.1
Barcelona	33.2	28.8	15.2	12.6	8.0	+4.4	62.1
Girona	23.7	38.7	21.9	8.1	5.3	−15.0	65.3
Lleida	22.5	41.4	19.9	9.7	4.4	−18.9	65.5
Tarragona	28.2	33.8	19.0	11.8	5.2	−5.6	61.7
TOTAL	31.2	30.9	16.4	11.9	7.3	+0.3	62.5

Post-election

Investiture voting

16 December 2003 Investiture voting for Pasqual Maragall (PSC) Absolute majority: 68/135
Vote	Parties	Votes
Yes	PSC (42), ERC (23), ICV (9)	74 / 135
No	CiU (46), PP (15)	61 / 135
Abstentions		0 / 135
Source: Historia Electoral

Notes

1. Compared to the Initiative for Catalonia Greens+United and Alternative Left results in the 1999 election.
2. This poll provides data ranges, approximations and/or various electoral scenario hypotheses calculated using similar weighting parameters. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.

References

1. "CiU hace oficial la candidatura de Mas para la presidencia de la Generalitat". El País. 2002-01-08. Retrieved 2014-04-18.
2. "Organic Law 5/1985, of 19 June, of the General Electoral Regime".
3. "Organic Law 4/1979, of 18 December, of Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia".