Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013

The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament (71 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 KAP and 5 independent) according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis.[1] The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2] The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC.[3]

Pendulum

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.28
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 50.60
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 50.88
Robertson (NSW) Deborah O'Neill ALP 51.00
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 51.12
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.13
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 51.45
La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP 51.66
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP 52.51
Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP 52.68
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 53.18
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 53.33
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 53.68
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 53.70
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 54.19
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 54.24
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 54.24
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 54.37
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson[note 1] IND 55.07 v LIB
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP 55.16
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP 55.41
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 55.70
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 55.77
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 55.78
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP 55.88
Fairly safe
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 56.08
Bass (Tas) Geoff Lyons ALP 56.74
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 56.75
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP 56.86
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 56.99
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP 57.48
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 57.52
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 57.71
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP 57.75 v GRN
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 57.81
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 57.89
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP 58.46
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 58.76
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 59.14
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 59.15
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 59.18
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP 59.42
Safe
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 60.41
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 60.53
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 60.82
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 61.15
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 61.70
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 62.00
Throsby (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 62.11
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 62.23
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP 62.29
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 62.34
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 62.48
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP 62.49
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP 62.67
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 62.85
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.17
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 63.47
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP 63.96
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 63.97
Fraser (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 64.20
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 64.55
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 67.07
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 67.49
Very safe
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 70.06
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP 70.53
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 70.91
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP 72.12
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 73.53
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 73.63
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP 74.13
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 50.57
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB 50.62
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 50.67
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB 51.04
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP 51.13
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB 51.26
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 51.63
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP 51.75
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 51.86
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP 51.92
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP 52.17
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB 52.19
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 52.43
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 52.53
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 52.82
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB 53.02
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 53.12
O'Connor (WA) Tony Crook NWA 53.56 v LIB
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 53.58
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 53.60
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper[note 2] IND 54.13 v ALP
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 54.21
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 54.55
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 55.13
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 55.17
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LIB 55.32
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB 55.33
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 55.40
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 55.55
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 55.66
Fairly safe
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB 56.01
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB 56.29
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LNP 56.95
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 57.16
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB 57.29
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 57.45
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 58.65
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LIB 58.72
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 58.74
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LIB 58.86
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 59.14
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 59.27
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LIB 58.99
Safe
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 60.15
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 60.28
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville LNP 60.39
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 60.39
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT 60.74
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 61.16
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LIB 61.19
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 61.45
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB 62.32
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 62.66
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LIB 63.01
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 63.09
Durack (WA) Barry Haase LIB 63.67
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB 64.06
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 64.19
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 64.51
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 64.86
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP 65.61
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB 65.72
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 66.19
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB 66.20
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 67.16
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 67.49
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 68.17
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 68.18
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP 68.53
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 68.86
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB 69.58
Very safe
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP 72.89
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NAT 73.26
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 68.34 v LNP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 55.91 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW) Rob Oakeshott IND 62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND 71.52 v NAT

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ This seat is held by an Independent MP who was formerly a Labor MP but switched to Independent following allegations of criminal misconduct currently (Aug 2013) before the courts. It has a notional majority of Labor Party voters.
  2. ↑ This seat is held by an Independent MP, but has a notional majority of Liberal Party voters.

References

  1. ↑ Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC
  2. ↑ Electoral matrix: APH
  3. ↑ "National seat status" (PDF). Australian Electoral Commission. April 2013. pp. 5–6, 8. Retrieved 13 April 2013.

External links

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