42nd Ontario general election

42nd Ontario general election

On or before June 7, 2018

122 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 62 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Kathleen Wynne Patrick Brown Andrea Horwath Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since January 26, 2013 May 9, 2015 March 7, 2009 Leader's seat Don Valley West Simcoe North Hamilton Centre Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75% Current seats 58 29 20

Incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne Liberal

The 42nd Ontario general election is scheduled to be held on or before June 7, 2018.^[1] Under amendments passed by the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in 2004, Ontario elections have been held on the first Thursday of October in the fourth calendar year unless the Assembly is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or on the advice of the Premier of Ontario.^[2] A motion of no confidence is unlikely as the current government has a majority, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she will likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in the spring of 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.^[3] Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced Bill 45 to the Legislative Assembly in October 2016 to amend the 2004 fixed election date law to the first Thursday in June of the fourth calendar year, meaning the 2018 election will be held on or before June 7.^[1]

Ridings

On June 4, 2015, the government introduced Bill 115, Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015,^[4] to the Legislature, and it received Royal Assent on December 3, 2015. Bill 115 increases the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following along the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2014	Current
	Liberal	Kathleen Wynne	58	58
	Progressive Conservative	Patrick Brown	28	29
	New Democratic	Andrea Horwath	21	20
	Vacant			0
Total			107	107

Timeline

2014

• June 12: The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.^[5]
• July 2: Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.^[6] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.^[7]
• July 24: The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
• November 20: Joe Cimino, the New Democratic Party MPP for Sudbury, resigns his seat, citing family reasons.^[8]

2015

• February 5: Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault is elected in a Sudbury by-election, gaining a seat that had been held by the NDP.^[9]
• May 9: Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.^[10]
• August 1: PC Simcoe North MPP Garfield Dunlop, resigns his seat to allow PC leader Patrick Brown to have a chance to run for a seat. Premier Kathleen Wynne orders a by-election for September 3, 2015.
• August 28: PC Whitby—Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott resigns her seat.
• September 3: PC Leader Patrick Brown is elected in the Simcoe North by-election.
• September 24: Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury byelection scandal.^[11]
• December 3: Bill 115, the Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, which increases the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, receives Royal Assent.

2016

• February 11: Lorne Coe is elected in the Whitby—Oshawa by-election, maintaining the seat for the PC's.
• March 22: Liberal Scarborough—Rouge River MPP Bas Balkissoon resigns his seat.
• June 30: Liberal Ottawa—Vanier MPP Madeleine Meilleur resigns her seat.
• September 1: PC candidate Raymond Cho is elected in the Scarborough—Rouge River by-election, gaining a seat held by the Liberals.
• September 16: PC Niagara West—Glanbrook MPP and former PC leader Tim Hudak resigns his seat.^[12]
• October 19: Two provincial by-elections have been called for November 17 to fill vacant seats in the Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara-West Glanbrook ridings.^[13]
• October 19: Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduces Bill 45, the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, which would move Ontario's fixed election date from the first Thursday in October to the first Thursday in June among other changes for First Reading.^[14][1]
• November 1: Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.^[15] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.^[16]
• November 17: PC candidate Sam Oosterhoff is elected in the Niagara West—Glanbrook by-election,^[17] and Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers is elected in the Ottawa—Vanier by-election.^[18]

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberals

• Glen Murray, Toronto Centre^[19]

New Democratic Party

• Cheri DiNovo, Parkdale—High Park^[20]

Candidates by region

† = Not seeking re-election
‡ = Running for re-election in different riding
Italicization indicates candidate for nomination
Highlight indicates nomination meeting has been scheduled
Strikethrough indicates nomination candidate disqualified or withdrew

East

Ottawa

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Carleton				Goldie Ghamari								New District
Kanata—Carleton				Craig Dunbar[21] Merrilee Fullerton[22] Rick Keindel[23] Jack MacLaren[24]								Jack MacLaren Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Nepean				Lisa MacLeod[25] Riven Zhang[26]								Lisa MacLeod Nepean—Carleton
Orléans				December 4, 2016 Cameron Montgomery[27]								Marie-France Lalonde Ottawa—Orléans
Ottawa Centre												Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South												John Fraser
Ottawa—Vanier		Nathalie Des Rosiers										Nathalie Des Rosiers
Ottawa West—Nepean				Karma MacGregor[28] Jeremy Roberts[29]								Bob Chiarelli

Eastern Ontario

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Bay of Quinte				Todd Smith[30]								Todd Smith Prince Edward—Hastings
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell				Amanda Simard								Grant Crack
Hastings—Lennox and Addington				Daryl Kramp								New District
Kingston and the Islands												Sophie Kiwala
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston												Randy Hillier Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes				Steve Clark								Steve Clark Leeds—Grenville
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke												John Yakabuski
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry												Jim McDonell

Central Ontario

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie—Innisfil												Ann Hoggarth Barrie
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte				Patrick Brown[31]								New District
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound												Bill Walker
Dufferin—Caledon												Sylvia Jones
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock												Laurie Scott
Northumberland—Peterborough South												Lou Rinaldi Northumberland—Quinte West
Peterborough—Kawartha												Jeff Leal Peterborough
Simcoe—Grey												Jim Wilson
Simcoe North				Doug Downey[32] Jill Dunlop[33]								Patrick Brown ‡
York—Simcoe												Julia Munro

905 Belt

Durham and York

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Ajax												Joe Dickson Ajax—Pickering
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill				Michael Parsa								New District
Durham				Mike Patrick[34]								Granville Anderson
King—Vaughan				Ed Dallal[35] Stephen Lecce[36] Konstantin Toubis								New District
Markham—Stouffville				Paul Calandra								Helena Jaczek Oak Ridges—Markham
Markham—Thornhill				December 18, 2016 Logan Kanapathi[37] Jim Kwan[38] Nimal Vinayagamoorthy[39]								New District
Markham—Unionville				Andrew Keyes[40] Billy Pang[41] Kai Tao[42]								Michael Chan
Newmarket—Aurora				Maddie Di Muccio[43] Bill Hogg[44] Charity McGrath[45]								Chris Ballard
Oshawa												Jennifer French
Pickering—Uxbridge				December 15, 2016 Peter Bethlenfalvy[46]								Tracy MacCharles Pickering—Scarborough East
Richmond Hill				Ted Leider[47]								Reza Moridi
Thornhill				Gila Martow								Gila Martow
Vaughan—Woodbridge												Steven Del Duca Vaughan
Whitby				Lorne Coe								Lorne Coe Whitby—Oshawa

Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Brampton Centre				Harjit Jaswal[48]								New District
Brampton East				Gulab Singh[49]								Jagmeet Singh Bramalea—Gore—Malton
Brampton North				Jass Johal								Harinder Malhi Brampton—Springdale
Brampton South				Prabmeet Sarkaria								New District
Brampton West				Jermaine Chambers[50] Randeep Sandhu[51]								Vic Dhillon
Mississauga Centre				December 10, 2016 Urz Heer[52] Tim Iqbal[53] Angely Pacis[54]								New District
Mississauga East—Cooksville				Mian Ashraf[55] Tassawar Syed[56]								Dipika Damerla
Mississauga—Erin Mills				Jaspreet Bassi[57] Bob Dechert[58] Mohammad Latif[59] Sheref Sabawy[60] Nadeem Shaikh[61]								Harinder Takhar Mississauga—Erindale
Mississauga—Lakeshore												Charles Sousa Mississauga South
Mississauga—Malton												Amrit Mangat Mississauga—Brampton South
Mississauga—Streetsville				December 4, 2016 Athar Aryan Amir[62] Nita Kang[63] Ghada Melek[64] Nina Tangri[65]								Bob Delaney
Oakville												Kevin Flynn
Oakville North—Burlington												Indira Naidoo-Harris Halton

Toronto

Scarborough

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Scarborough—Agincourt				Aris Babikian[66] Cozette Giannini[67]								Soo Wong
Scarborough Centre				John Papadakis[68]								Brad Duguid
Scarborough—Guildwood												Mitzie Hunter
Scarborough North				Raymond Cho								Raymond Cho Scarborough—Rouge River
Scarborough—Rouge Park				Kavitha Vara Senthil[69] Shean Sinnarajah[70]								New District
Scarborough Southwest												Lorenzo Berardinetti

North York and North Toronto

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Don Valley East												Michael Coteau
Don Valley North		Shelley Carroll[71]										New District
Don Valley West		Kathleen Wynne[72]		Dean Baxendale[73] Jon Kieran[74]								Kathleen Wynne
Eglinton—Lawrence				Robin Martin[75]		Thomas Gallezot[76]						Michael Colle
Willowdale												David Zimmer
York Centre				January 15, 2017 Roman Baber[77] Joe Oliver[78] Edward Prutschi[79]								Monte Kwinter

Toronto and East York

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Beaches—East York												Arthur Potts
Davenport												Cristina Martins
Spadina—Fort York				Sabrina Zuniga[80]								Han Dong Trinity—Spadina
Toronto Centre												Glen Murray †
Toronto—Danforth												Peter Tabuns
Toronto—St. Paul's												Eric Hoskins St. Paul's
University—Rosedale												New District

Etobicoke and York

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Etobicoke Centre				Kinga Surma								Yvan Baker
Etobicoke North												Shafiq Qadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore												Peter Milczyn
Humber River—Black Creek												Sergio Marchi York West
Parkdale—High Park												Cheri DiNovo †
York South—Weston				Mark Silver[81]								Laura Albanese

Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Burlington				Jane McKenna								Eleanor McMahon
Flamborough—Glanbrook				Dan Sadler[82] Nick Lauwers[83]								New District
Hamilton Centre												Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek												Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain												Monique Taylor
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas				Ben Levitt[84] Jeff Peller[85]								Ted McMeekin Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Milton				Mike Cluett[86] Parm Gill[87]								New District
Niagara Centre												Cindy Forster Welland
Niagara Falls				Mike Strange[88]								Wayne Gates
Niagara West				Sam Oosterhoff								Sam Oosterhoff Niagara West—Glanbrook
St. Catherines												Jim Bradley

Midwestern Ontario

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Brantford—Brant												Dave Levac Brant
Cambridge												Kathryn McGarry
Guelph												Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk												Toby Barrett
Huron—Bruce												Lisa Thompson
Kitchener Centre												Daiene Vernile
Kitchener—Conestoga												Michael Harris
Kitchener South—Hespeler												New District
Oxford												Ernie Hardeman
Perth—Wellington												Randy Pettapiece
Waterloo												Catherine Fife Kitchener—Waterloo
Wellington—Halton Hills												Ted Arnott

Southwestern Ontario

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Chatham-Kent—Leamington												Rick Nicolls Chatham-Kent—Essex
Elgin—Middlesex—London												Jeff Yurek
Essex												Taras Natyshak
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex												Monte McNaughton
London—Fanshawe												Teresa Armstrong
London North Centre		Deb Matthews[89]		Zach Engel[90] Susan Truppe[91]								Deb Matthews
London West				Jake Skinner[92]								Peggy Sattler
Sarnia—Lambton												Bob Bailey
Windsor—Tecumseh												Percy Hatfield
Windsor West				Adam Ibrahim								Lisa Gretzky

Northern Ontario

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		PC		NDP		Green		Other
Algoma—Manitoulin												Michael Mantha
Kenora—Rainy River												Sarah Campbell
Nickel Belt												France Gelinas
Nipissing												Victor Fedeli
Parry Sound—Muskoka												Norm Miller
Sault Ste. Marie				Ross Romano								David Orazietti
Sudbury												Glenn Thibeault
Thunder Bay—Atikokan												Bill Mauro
Thunder Bay—Superior North												Claude Gravelle
Timiskaming—Cochrane												John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay												Gilles Bisson

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Type of poll	Sample size	Margin of Error
Forum Research	November 21, 2016	PDF	24	43	24	8	2	IVR	1,184	±3%
Nanos Research	November 19, 2016	PDF	31.9	39.9	22.2	5.2	0.8	Telephone	500	±4.4%
Mainstreet Research	November 2, 2016	HTML	25	43	27	6	-	IVR	2,524	±1.95%
Forum Research	October 18, 2016	PDF	24	43	23	8	2	IVR	1,124	±3%
Innovative Research	September 24, 2016	PDF	33	38	20	8	-	Telephone	600	±4.0%
Ipsos Reid	September 22, 2016	HTML	40	35	20	5	-	Online	800	±4%
Mainstreet Research	September 18, 2016	HTML	28	43	23	6	-	IVR	2,562	±1.94%
Forum Research	September 13, 2016	PDF	25	45	23	6	2	IVR	1,154	±3%
Ipsos Reid	September 9, 2016	HTML	35	37	23	5	-	Online	800	±4%
Forum Research	August 15, 2016	PDF	28	41	23	6	2	IVR	1,097	±3%
Forum Research	July 12, 2016	PDF	35	42	17	5	2	IVR	1,183	±3%
Forum Research	June 21, 2016	PDF	30	40	21	8	2	IVR	1,173	±3%
Forum Research	May 31, 2016	PDF	30	40	21	7	2	IVR	1,172	±3%
Mainstreet Research	May 18, 2016	HTML	36	38	20	5	-	IVR	2,537	±1.95%
Forum Research	April 25, 2016	PDF	34	39	21	5	2	IVR	1,157	±3%
Forum Research	March 23, 2016	PDF	30	40	24	5	2	IVR	1,225	±3%
Forum Research	February 29, 2016	PDF	27	44	22	6	2	IVR	1,148	±3%
Mainstreet Research	February 16, 2016	HTML	33	36	26	5	-	IVR	2,623	±1.91%
Forum Research	December 20, 2015	PDF	31	34	26	7	2	IVR	1,003	±3%
Ipsos Reid	November 9, 2015	HTML	44	31	20	4	-	Online	1,002	±3.5%
Forum Research	November 4, 2015	PDF	30	36	26	6	1	IVR	1,158	±3%
Mainstreet Research	November 1, 2015	HTML	28	40	25	7	-	IVR	2,506	±1.96%
Mainstreet Research	September 21, 2015	HTML	30	40	24	7	-	IVR	4,610	±1.5%
Forum Research	August 13, 2015	PDF	26	35	33	4	2	IVR	1,001	±3%
Forum Research	July 5, 2015	PDF	26	32	35	5	2	IVR	678	±4%
Ipsos Reid	May 20, 2015	HTML	34	32	25	8	-	Online	1,002	±3.5%
Innovative Research	May 19, 2015	PDF	34	35	24	6	-	Telephone	606	±4.0%
Forum Research	May 11, 2015	PDF	24	33	36	5	2	IVR	1,001	±3%
Forum Research	April 30, 2015	PDF	29	36	24	9	2	IVR	912	±3%
Innovative Research	April 26, 2015	PDF	40	33	18	8	1	Online	1,017
Forum Research	March 26, 2015	PDF	29	34	27	8	2	IVR	881	±3%
Environics	March 25, 2015	HTML	32	33	27	7	-	Telephone	989	±3.1%
Forum Research	February 27, 2015	PDF	32	39	21	6	2	IVR	996	±3%
Forum Research	January 30, 2015	PDF	37	36	19	6	2	IVR	1,028	±3%
Forum Research	December 20, 2014	PDF	35	36	20	7	2	IVR	1,058	±3%
Forum Research	November 29, 2014	PDF	37	37	17	7	2	IVR	1,054	±3%
Forum Research	November 1, 2014	PDF	40	35	19	4	2	IVR	1,104	±3%
Forum Research	October 1, 2014	PDF	36	34	23	6	1	IVR	1,079	±3%
Forum Research	August 21, 2014	PDF	39	32	19	8	2	IVR	1,229	±3%
2014 election	June 12, 2014	HTML	38.65	31.25	23.75	4.84	1.51

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72. https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/09/02/wynne-sticking-around-despite-scarborough-rouge-river-byelection-loss.html
73. https://twitter.com/baxendaledean/status/795011320592629764
74. https://twitter.com/jonwkieran/status/800163771817852928
75. "Gila Martow on Twitter". Twitter.
76. https://www.facebook.com/Thomas.Gallezot/?hc_ref=SEARCH&fref=nf
77. http://www.romanbaber.ca/
78. https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/25/joe-oliver-to-run-for-ontario-tories-in-2018-election.html
79. "Edward Prutschi on Twitter". Twitter.
80. https://twitter.com/SabrinaZunigaTO
81. https://twitter.com/RealMarkSilver/status/753913877427986436
82. https://www.facebook.com/dansadler2018/?fref=ts
83. http://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/6907984-mount-hope-resident-seeks-flamborough-glanbrook-ontario-pc-nomination/
84. https://twitter.com/WerkHCN/status/786385239060819969
85. http://nominatejeffpeller.com/
86. http://www.completecommunity.ca/
87. https://www.facebook.com/MPParmGill/posts/1162254647223769
88. http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2016/09/16/strange-eyeing-pc-nomination
89. http://www.lfpress.com/2016/11/08/susan-truppe-to-run-against-deputy-premier-deb-matthews
90. http://zachengel.com/
91. http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-former-federal-finance-minister-joe-oliver-wants-a-provincial-tory-nomination
92. http://www.jakeskinner.ca/

External links

• Elections Ontario