Frozen conflict

Geopolitics of Eastern Europe, 2014, showing the frozen conflict zones of Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia (numbered 1–4), as well as Nagorno-Karabakh (shown as darker shaded region within Azerbaijan), Northern Cyprus (lighter region within Cyprus), and Kosovo (beige region within Serbia). Israel and the Palestinian territories also appear on the map.

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other perennial territorial disputes.^[1]^[2]^[3] The de facto situation that emerges may match the de jure position asserted by one party to the conflict; for example, Russia claims and effectively controls Crimea following the 2014 Crimean crisis despite Ukraine's continuing claim to the region. Alternatively, the de facto situation may not match either side's official claim. The division of Korea is an example of the latter situation: both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea officially assert claims to the entire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result in partially recognized states. For example, the Republic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozen Georgian–Ossetian conflict, is recognized by only seven states, three of which are partially recognized states themselves.

Examples

In post-Soviet territories

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, a number of conflicts arose in areas of some of the post-Soviet states, usually where the new international borders did not match the ethnic affiliations of local populations. These conflicts have largely remained "frozen", with disputed areas under the de facto control of entities other than the countries to which they are internationally recognized as belonging, and which still consider those areas to be part of their territory.

Since the ceasefire which ended the Transnistria War (1990–1992), the Russian-influenced breakaway republic of Transnistria has controlled the easternmost strip of the territory of Moldova. The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region, an ethnically Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, has been a source of dispute between Azeris and Armenians for many decades. The Nagorno-Karabakh War was fought as a full-scale conflict in 1991–1994. Since the ceasefire, the Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has controlled the region and an area adjoining it (giving it a border with Armenia). The Republic remains internationally unrecognized, in spite of efforts to settle its political status. Azerbaijan continues to claim the whole territory as its own, and the Republic in turn lays claim to an area to the north which remains under Azerbaijan's de facto control.

The Abkhaz–Georgian conflict and Georgian–Ossetian conflict have led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory of Georgia. The 1991–92 South Ossetia War and the War in Abkhazia (1992–93), followed by the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, have left the Russian-backed Republic of South Ossetia and Republic of Abkhazia in de facto control of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia.

In 2014, Crimea was occupied by the Russian troops without insignia while Ukraine was still recovering from large scale violence in the capital, and soon afterwards was admitted into the Russian Federation. This is widely regarded as an annexation of the peninsula by Russia, and is considered likely to result in another post-Soviet frozen conflict.^[4] Fears have been expressed that a similar outcome will result from the 2014–2015 War in Donbass, where the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic have taken de facto control of areas in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.

Others in Asia

India and Pakistan have fought at least three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir in 1947, 1965, and 1999. India claims the entire area of the former princely state of Kashmir and Jammu, of which it administers approximately 43%. Its claims are contested by Pakistan, which controls approximately 37% of the region.^[5]^[6] The remainder is controlled by China, with which India is also in dispute.

The conflict between mainland China and Taiwan remains frozen since 1949. Both the People's Republic of China in the Mainland and the Republic of China in Taiwan consider the other to be part of its territory. While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains a de facto independent administration in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu, and PRC's de facto administration remains in the Mainland.

The division of Korea remains frozen since 1953, when a ceasefire ended the Korean War. Both North Korea and South Korea governments claim the entire peninsula, while de facto control is divided along the military demarcation line in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

The Arab–Israeli conflict is a perennial conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including the Palestinian territories. Israel refuses to recognize Palestinian statehood (which generally remains unrecognized internationally), while some Arab groups refuse to accept the existence of Israel. Israel has de facto control of East Jerusalem and claims it as its integral territory, although it is not internationally recognized as such. Similarly most of the Golan Heights are currently under de facto Israeli control and civil administration, whereas Syria rejects that claim.

Others in Europe and Africa

The dispute over the status of Kosovo remains frozen since the end of the Kosovo War, fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (FR Yugoslavia) and the ethnically Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army. The Kosovo region has been administered independently since the war, and the Republic of Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, but it is not recognized by all countries worldwide, and Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory.

The Cyprus dispute has been frozen since 1974. The northern part of Cyprus is under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is not recognized internationally except by Turkey.

The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since a ceasefire in 1991, although various disturbances have broken out since then. Control of the territory of Western Sahara remains divided between Morocco and the Polisario Front.

References

↑ Simon Tisdall (2010-09-22). "This dangerous new world of self-interested nations". The Guardian. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
↑ "North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?". Isn.ethz.ch. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
↑ "Europe: Frozen conflicts". The Economist. 2008-11-19. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
↑ Will Ukraine's Crimea region be Europe's next 'frozen' conflict?, CNN, Feb 28, 2014
↑ Choudhury, Salah Uddin Shoaib (8 October 2010). "Pakistani rogue policy on Kashmir". Sri Lanka Guardian. Retrieved 29 May 2013.
↑ Durrani, Atiq (4 February 2013). "PAK-INDIA Dialogue: Single-Point-Agenda: KASHMIR". PKKH. Retrieved 18 August 2013.

Cold War

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1940s	Hukbalahap Rebellion Dekemvriana Yalta Conference Guerrilla war in the Baltic states Forest Brothers Operation Priboi Operation Jungle Occupation of the Baltic states Cursed Soldiers Operation Unthinkable Potsdam Conference Gouzenko Affair Operation Masterdom Operation Beleaguer Operation Blacklist Forty Iran crisis of 1946 Greek Civil War Corfu Channel incident Turkish Straits crisis Restatement of Policy on Germany First Indochina War Truman Doctrine Asian Relations Conference Marshall Plan 1948 Czechoslovak coup d'état Tito–Stalin Split Berlin Blockade Western betrayal Iron Curtain Eastern Bloc Western Bloc Chinese Civil War (Second round) Malayan Emergency Albanian Subversion

1950s	Bamboo Curtain Korean War 1953 Iranian coup d'état Uprising of 1953 in East Germany 1954 Guatemalan coup d'état Partition of Vietnam First Taiwan Strait Crisis Geneva Summit (1955) Poznań 1956 protests Hungarian Revolution of 1956 Suez Crisis Syrian Crisis of 1957 Sputnik crisis Second Taiwan Strait Crisis Cuban Revolution Kitchen Debate Bandung Conference Bricker Amendment McCarthyism Operation Gladio Iraqi July Revolution "We will bury you"

1960s	Congo Crisis Sino-Soviet split 1960 U-2 incident Bay of Pigs Invasion 1960 Turkish coup d'état Soviet–Albanian split Berlin Wall Portuguese Colonial War Angolan War of Independence Guinea-Bissau War of Independence Mozambican War of Independence Cuban Missile Crisis Sino-Indian War Communist insurgency in Sarawak Iraqi Ramadan Revolution 1963 Syrian coup d'état Vietnam War 1964 Brazilian coup d'état United States occupation of the Dominican Republic (1965–66) South African Border War Transition to the New Order Domino theory ASEAN Declaration Laotian Civil War 1966 Syrian coup d'état Argentine Revolution Korean DMZ Conflict Greek military junta of 1967–74 USS Pueblo incident Six-Day War War of Attrition Cultural Revolution Prague Spring Communist insurgency in Malaysia Invasion of Czechoslovakia Iraqi Ba'athist Revolution Goulash Communism Sino-Soviet border conflict CPP-NPA-NDF rebellion Corrective Move

1970s	Détente Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Black September in Jordan Corrective Movement (Syria) Cambodian Civil War Realpolitik Ping-pong diplomacy 1971 Turkish military memorandum Corrective Revolution (Egypt) Four Power Agreement on Berlin Bangladesh Liberation War 1972 Nixon visit to China North Yemen-South Yemen Border Conflict 1973 Chilean coup d'état Yom Kippur War Carnation Revolution Strategic Arms Limitation Talks Rhodesian Bush War Angolan Civil War Mozambican Civil War Ogaden War Ethiopian Civil War Lebanese Civil War Sino-Albanian split Cambodian–Vietnamese War Sino-Vietnamese War Iranian Revolution Operation Condor Dirty War Korean Air Lines Flight 902 Saur Revolution New Jewel Movement 1979 Herat uprising Seven Days to the River Rhine Struggle against political abuse of psychiatry in the Soviet Union

1980s	Soviet–Afghan War 1980 and 1984 Summer Olympics boycotts 1980 Turkish coup d'état Invasion of Grenada 1986 Black Sea incident 1988 Black Sea bumping incident Solidarity Soviet reaction Contras Central American crisis RYAN Korean Air Lines Flight 007 Able Archer 83 Star Wars People Power Revolution Nagorno-Karabakh War Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall Revolutions of 1989 Glasnost Perestroika

1990s	Mongolian Revolution of 1990 Yemeni unification Fall of Communism in Albania Breakup of Yugoslavia Dissolution of the Soviet Union Dissolution of Czechoslovakia

Frozen conflicts	Abkhazia China Korea Nagorno-Karabakh South Ossetia Transnistria Sino-Indian border dispute

Foreign policy	Truman Doctrine Marshall Plan Containment Eisenhower Doctrine Domino theory Hallstein Doctrine Kennedy Doctrine Peaceful coexistence Ostpolitik Johnson Doctrine Brezhnev Doctrine Nixon Doctrine Ulbricht Doctrine Carter Doctrine Reagan Doctrine Rollback Sovereignty of Puerto Rico during the Cold War

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Organizations	ASEAN CIA Comecon EEC KGB Non-Aligned Movement SAARC Safari Club MI6 Stasi

Propaganda	Active measures Izvestia Pravda Crusade for Freedom Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Red Scare TASS Voice of America Voice of Russia

Races	Arms race Nuclear arms race Space Race

See also	Brinkmanship NATO–Russia relations Soviet espionage in the United States Russian espionage in the United States American espionage in the Soviet Union Soviet Union–United States relations US–Soviet summits

Category Portal Timeline List of conflicts

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