Guatemalan general election, 2015

Guatemalan presidential election, 2015
Guatemala
6 September 2015
25 October 2015
 
Nominee Jimmy Morales Sandra Torres
Party FCN UNE
Popular vote 2,750,847 1,328,381
Percentage 67.44% 32.56%

Results of first round by department:
dark blue for Morales; red for Baldizón;
green for Torres; and light blue for Estrada.
President before election

Alejandro Maldonado (acting)

 President-elect

Jimmy Morales
FCN

Guatemala
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politics and government of
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General elections were held in Guatemala on 6 September 2015 to elect the President and Vice President, all 158 Congress deputies, all 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament, and mayors and councils for all 338 municipalities in the country.

The Renewed Democratic Liberty became the largest party in Congress with 44 seats. Since no presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a run-off took place on 25 October. Jimmy Morales won the contest, taking 64.7% of the vote, in a landslide victory over Sandra Torres.

It was the first presidential election since 1999 in which the runner-up of the previous contest did not then go on to win.

Background

Further information: La Linea corruption case

Ahead of the election, the La Linea corruption case involving high-ranking officials of the outgoing administration, including President Otto Pérez Molina and Vice President Roxana Baldetti, was made public by the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala. Baldetti resigned in May and was arrested on fraud charges in August. More than a dozen ministers and deputy ministers as well as a number of government officials also resigned. Less than a week before the election, President Pérez was stripped of his immunity, resigned and was arrested. Alejandro Maldonado Aguirre acts as head of state until a new president is elected and sworn into office. The scandal has further diminished many Guatemalans' trust in the political elite. Some of the participants of mass protests against corruption demanded a postponement of the election due to the crisis and claims of irregularities.[1][2]

Possible Belize referendum

In May 2015, Belize allowed Guatemala to proceed with a referendum asking the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to definitively rule on Guatemala's longstanding territorial dispute against Belize, although Belize by its own admission was not ready for such a vote. A previous treaty between the two countries stipulated that any such vote must be held simultaneously. Guatemala was initially expected to hold its referendum on the issue during its second round of presidential elections in October 2015.[3] Belize has yet to announce its vote on the matter.[4]

When Jimmy Morales was running for president, a Guatemalan journalist asked Morales which Guatemalan historical event he thought was the most deplorable. Morales responded, "The most deplorable event – among all the things that have happened in Guatemala, there are certain things that are not spoken about and which I believe we should. Everything that goes contrary to national unity and territorial integrity are things that should hurt us. Something is happening right now, we are about to lose Belize. We have not lost it yet. We still have the possibility of going to the International Court of Justice where we can fight that territory or part of that territory. ... I think that it is worth anything that is natural resources and of benefit to the nation."[3]

Electoral system

The President of Guatemala is elected using the two-round system. The 158 members of Congress are elected by two methods; 31 members are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The other 127 seats are elected in 22 multi-member constituencies aligned with the departments also using the d'Hondt method.[5]

Around 7.5 million people registered for the elections. Members of the armed forces (Air Force, Army, and Navy), people in prison, and Guatemalans living abroad were not allowed to vote.[6] The Tribunal Supremo Electoral (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) officially called for general elections on 2 May 2015.

Campaign

LIDER party campaign posters

A total of 14 candidates were registered to contest the presidential elections:[7]

In the buildup to the elections the Patriotic Party (PP) and Renewed Democratic Liberty (LIDER) were suspended due to repeated offences. However, all parties were reinstated before elections were called.[9][10]

Opinion polls

A poll released on 3 September gave Morales 25% of the vote, compared to 22.9% for Manuel Baldizon and 18.4% for Sandra Torres.[11]

Results

President

The front runners: Morales, Baldizón and Torres, were expected to competitively compete for the position of President. In the first round, Morales gained 23.9% of the vote, followed by a closely fought battle between Torres and Baldizón, with less than 6,000 votes separating the two. Since no candidate received a 50% majority, the top two candidates participated in the run-off in October. Morales won the run-off contest with 67.4% of the vote to Torres' 32.6%. Morales, a comedic actor, won with the slogan "not corrupt, nor a thief".[12]

Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Jimmy MoralesNational Convergence Front1,167,03023.852,750,84767.44
Sandra TorresNational Unity of Hope967,24219.761,328,38132.56
Manuel BaldizónRenewed Democratic Liberty961,28419.64
Alejandro GiammatteiFuerza315,7746.45
Zury RíosVision with Values288,4215.89
Lizardo SosaTodos260,8015.33
Mario David GarcíaPatriotic Party226,3724.63
Roberto González Díaz-DuránCREO–Unionist Party168,7153.45
Mario EstradaNational Change Union168,6643.45
Juan Guillermo Gutiérrez National Advancement Party151,6553.10
Miguel Ángel SandovalWinaq–URNG–MAIZ103,3002.11
José Ángel LópezEncounter for Guatemala44,3600.91
Luis Fernando PérezInstitutional Republican Party41,9640.86
Aníbal GarcíaNew Republic Movement28,4270.58
Invalid/blank votes495,996–176,647–
Total5,390,0051004,079,228100
Registered voters/turnout7,556,87371.337,556,87356.32
Source: TSE

Congress

In Congress, Baldizón's LIDER gained 30 seats on their previous election making them the largest party with 44 seats. Torres' UNE retained second position with 36 seats, despite losing 12. Competing in their first election, Todos captured 18 seats. PP suffered the greatest loss, losing 39 seats overall, down to 17. Morales' FCN gained 11 seats.

Party Votes % Seats +/–
Renewed Democratic Liberty885,62019.1044+30
National Unity of Hope687,89014.8336−12
Todos451,7689.7418New
Patriotic Party437,4219.4317−39
National Convergence Front405,9228.7511+11
Encuentro por Guatemala289,5446.247
CREO–Unionist Party264,0595.695−8
National Change Union251,5785.436−8
Winaq–URNG–MAIZ200,0894.323+2
Convergence178,2123.843New
Vision with Values169,8133.663
National Advancement Party158,5613.423+1
Fuerza95,8552.072New
Institutional Republican Party57,9581.250−1
New Republic Movement41,7340.900New
Reform Movement36,7480.790New
Heart New Nation24,2490.520New
Invalid/blank votes738,08213.73––
Total5,375,1031001580
Registered voters/turnout7,556,87371.13––
Source: TSE (98.85% of votes counted), Seats according to elPeriodico

Reactions

Following his victory, Morales vowed "I will try with all my heart and strength not to disappoint you."[13] The US-based National Public Radio described this a rightward shift among voters in both the Americas and Europe.[14]

References

  1. ↑ Jo Tuckman (27 August 2015). "Guatemalan president faces growing threat of impeachment amid scandal". The Guardian.
  2. ↑ Fernando del Rincón; Rafael Romo (7 September 2015). "Guatemala election: Millions vote, but runoff widely expected". CNN.
  3. 1 2 Trujillo, Renee. "Presidential Candidate for Guatemala Says Belize Can Still Be Fought For", LOVE FM, 9 September 2015 (retrieved 28 September 2015)
  4. ↑ Ramos, Adele. "Belize and Guatemala to amend ICJ compromis", Amandala, 12 May 2015. (retrieved 14 May 2015)
  5. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  6. ↑ "Órgano electoral da luz verde a comicios generales". s21.com.gt. Retrieved 7 September 2015.
  7. ↑ "Candidatos Presidenciales 2015 Guatemala". guatemalaelecciones.com. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  8. ↑ Louisa Reynolds (10 June 2015). "In Guatemala, anti-establishment presidential candidate benefits from corruption scandals". The Tico Times.
  9. ↑ Flor de María Ortiz. "2015 electoral season already started" (in Spanish). Guatemala: lahora.com.gt. Retrieved 13 August 2013.
  10. ↑ http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20141221/pais/6476/Partidos-suspendidos-son-multados--otra-vez-por-campaña-anticipada.htm
  11. ↑ France 24 news report, 6 September 2015
  12. ↑ Jimmy Morales Is Elected New President in Guatemala The New York Times, 26 October 2015
  13. ↑ Ex-comedian Jimmy Morales in landslide Guatemala election victory Financial Times, 26 October 2015
  14. ↑ Voters In Poland, Guatemala And Argentina Surprise Establishment Candidates NPR, 26 October 2015

External links

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