Navarrese parliamentary election, 2015

Next Navarrese parliamentary election

24 May 2015

All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 501,267 3.3% Turnout 342,173 (68.3%) 0.9 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Esparza Uxue Barkos Adolfo Araiz Party UPN GBai EH Bildu Leader since 30 November 2014 3 October 2014 11 October 2014 Last election 19 seats, 34.5% 8 seats, 15.4% 7 seats, 13.3% Seats won 15 9 8 Seat change 4 1 1 Popular vote 92,705 53,497 48,166 Percentage 27.4% 15.8% 14.2% Swing 7.1 pp 0.4 pp 0.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Laura Pérez María Chivite Ana Beltrán Party Podemos PSN–PSOE PP Leader since 14 February 2015 13 December 2014 6 March 2015 Last election Did not contest 9 seats, 15.9% 4 seats, 7.3% Seats won 7 7 2 Seat change 7 2 2 Popular vote 46,207 45,164 13,289 Percentage 13.7% 13.4% 3.9% Swing New party 2.5 pp 3.4 pp

President before election Yolanda Barcina UPN Elected President Uxue Barkos GBai

The 2015 Navarrese parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of Navarre, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre. At stake were all 50 seats in the Parliament, determining the President of Navarre.

The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Outgoing President Yolanda Barcina, having first been elected in 2011, announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not seek re-election for a second term in office.^[1] This election was held after 19 years of uninterrupted UPN rule and marked the end of one of the most unstable parliamentary terms in the recent history of Navarre.^[2]

Electoral system

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected in a single multi-member district, consisting of the Community's territory (the province of Navarre), using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system.

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[3]

As per article 12 of the Navarrese Electoral Law, election day was set for the fourth Sunday of May every four years.^[3] From the 2001 reform of Navarre's Statute of Autonomy, the President of Navarre could dissolve Parliament and call for a snap election at a time different than the legally established date, but was barred from doing so when less than one year remained for the next election's scheduled date. New elections would also be automatically held in the event of a parliamentary deadlock in the election of a new President for three months after voting day. Before the 2001 reform, the head of the largest parliamentary party became President if no candidate obtained a majority within 90 days. In both cases, the newly elected Parliament would have a full mandate for a four-year period.^[4]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in a coalition agreement between Navarrese People's Union and the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, with UPN leader Yolanda Barcina being elected as President.^[5] However, tension remained frequent between both coalition partners,^[6] and in June 2012, PSN-PSOE leader and then-Vice President of Navarre Roberto Jiménez' questioning of a UPN's decision to pass an additional budget cut of 132 billion euros resulted in his expulsion from Barcina's Cabinet. The PSOE withdrew from the regional government, leaving UPN in minority.^[7][8] As a consequence, with the left-wing opposition commanding a majority in Parliament, political instability marked the remainder of the legislature, with the government being unable to pass its bills into law or to successfully approve further budgets.^[9]

The eruption of the Caja Navarra scandal in early 2013, involving President Barcina and other UPN high-ranking members,^[10][11] resulted in an ill-fated attempt by Bildu and Aralar / Nafarroa Bai to bring forward a censure motion against Yolanda Barcina, which had no realistic prospect of succeeding because of PSN abstention.^[12] Additionally, dissent within Barcina's party materialized with party Vice President Alberto Catalán forcing a leadership election in March 2013 which Barcina was only narrowly able to win.^[13] In February 2014, Finance Counselor Lourdes Goicoechea was accused of influence peddling within the regional Treasury,^[14][15] prompting Roberto Jiménez to threaten Barcina with a censure motion if she did not voluntarily call for a snap regional election.^[16][17] The PSOE national leadership, however, explicitly forbid its regional branch from reaching any kind of agreement that needed Bildu's support, and Jiménez backed down on his threat as a consequence.^[18]

The PSN-PSOE was severely mauled in the same year European Parliament election, winning just 14.5% compared to the 31.5% it had won in 2009, and losing over half of its 2009 votes (31,629 compared to 63,848 in 2009). Roberto Jiménez resigned as PSN leader, being succeeded by María Chivite.^[19][20] The abertzale left represented under Euskal Herria Bildu's flag, on the other hand, became the second political force of the community for the first time ever, with 20.2% of the vote.

Podemos' emergence in opinion polls marked the end of the legislature and into 2015. Yolanda Barcina, initially widely scheduled to stand for re-election,^[21] announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not stand for a second term as President of Navarre.^[1] A primary election was held on 29 November 2014, in which incumbent Local Government Counselor José Javier Esparza defeated Alberto Catalán and became UPN candidate for the 2015 parliamentary election.^[22]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling										Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	27.4	13.4	15.8	14.3	3.9	3.7	0.5	3.0	13.7			11.6
NC Report	May 17, 2015	22.3	11.9	11.0	15.2	8.3	5.2		8.5	10.8	±5.0 pp	400	7.1
Gizaker	May 13, 2015	24.3	11.5	17.9	16.1	4.4	3.1	1.4	4.2	14.3	±3.5 pp	800	6.4
CIES	May 11, 2015	28.5	9.6	15.1	13.1	5.6	3.6		8.2	13.8	±2.8 pp	1,228	13.4
CIS	April 19, 2015	20.8	11.2	10.0	12.5	6.7	5.1	0.5	8.7	19.9	±3.6 pp	789	0.9
CIES	April 17, 2015	26.1	10.2	17.1	13.7	6.4	3.2		5.9	14.7	±3.5 pp	800	9.0
Herkap	March 23, 2015	22.5	10.4	7.8	17.3	9.5	6.4		7.7	13.9	±5.0 pp	400	5.2
Gizaker	March 22, 2015	24.2	13.9	15.8	14.4	5.2	3.3		3.0	16.4			7.8
NC Report	March 11, 2015	22.3	11.2	9.4	16.5	10.2	5.2		9.7	8.6	±5.0 pp	400	5.8
El Diario	November 21, 2014	23	9	8	19					27			4
Orbere	November 7, 2014	14.3	9.1	7.9	19.3	2.9	3.9	2.6		33.0	±2.6 pp	1,500	13.7
Torrene Consulting	October 31, 2014	23.1	12.1	11.3	16.4	8.5	4.5			15.6	±4.9 pp	400	6.7
EP Election	May 25, 2014		14.5		20.2	25.1	9.5	4.6	1.8	9.3			4.9
Inpactos	February 26, 2014	23.5	21.0	16.5	17.5	5.0	12.0				±4.5 pp	500	2.5
Inpactos	September 30, 2013	28.0	19.5	16.0	14.0	5.0	11.5				±4.5 pp	500	8.5
Gizaker	May 13, 2013	26.8	16.1	19.1	20.0	5.2	7.3				±3.5 pp	800	6.8
Geroa Bai	May 9, 2013	27.3	10.7	21.3	19.0	5.5	9.5						6.0
Gara	April 23, 2012	35.0	13.0	16.9	18.7	4.8	6.8					625	16.3
General Election	November 20, 2011	38.2	22.0	12.8	14.9	w.	5.5	2.1					16.2
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	34.5	15.9	15.4	13.3	7.3	5.7	0.7					18.6

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Exit poll

26 seats needed for majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	15	7	9	8	2	2	0	0	7
GAD3	May 24, 2015	15/16	6/7	8/9	7/8	3/4	0/1	0	1/2	6/7
NC Report	May 17, 2015	12/13	6/7	6	8/9	4/5	2/3	0	4/5	6
GAD3	May 17, 2015	14/15	6	8/9	7	3	1	0	3	7/8
Gizaker	May 13, 2015	13	6	10	8	2	1	0	2	8
CIES	May 11, 2015	15/16	5	8	6/7	2/3	1/2	0	4	7/8
Inpactos	April 30, 2015	14	8	6	8	2	3	0	2	7
CIS	April 19, 2015	11/12	6	5	7	3	2	0	4/5	11
CIES	April 17, 2015	14/15	5	9	7	3	0/1	0	3	8
Herkap	March 23, 2015	13	5	4	9	5	3	0	4	7
Gizaker	March 22, 2015	13	7	9	8	2	1	0	1	9
NC Report	March 11, 2015	12/13	6/7	5/6	8/9	5/6	2/3	0	5/6	4/5
CIES	November 28, 2014	15	6	4/5	9/10	2	2	0	0	12
Orbere	November 7, 2014	8	5	4	11	1	2	1	0	18
Llorente & Cuenca	October 31, 2014	15/17	7/8	7/9	7/10	3/4	2/4	0	0	0/1
Torrene Consulting	October 31, 2014	13	7	6	9	4	1	0	0	9
EP Election	May 25, 2014		(9)		(12)	(16)	(6)	(2)	(0)	(5)
Inpactos	February 26, 2014	13	11	9	9	2	6	0
NC Report	November 12, 2013	16/17	9	10/11	10	3	3/4	0
Inpactos	September 30, 2013	15	11	9	7	2	6	0
Gizaker	May 13, 2013	15	8	10	11	2	4	0
NC Report	May 10, 2013	18	9	8	8	4	3	0
Geroa Bai	May 9, 2013	13/15	5/6	10/12	10/12	2/3	4/6	0
Gara	April 23, 2012	19	7	9	10	2	3	0
General Election	November 20, 2011	(20)	(12)	(7)	(8)	w.	(3)	(0)
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	19	9	8	7	4	3	0

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Navarrese Parliament election results

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Navarrese People's Union (UPN)	92,705	27.44	7.04	15	4
	Yes to the Future (GBai)	53,497	15.83	0.42	9	1
	Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu)	48,166	14.25	0.97	8	1
	We Can (Podemos)	46,207	13.67	New	7	7
	Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN-PSOE)	45,164	13.37	2.48	7	2
	People's Party (PP)	13,289	3.93	3.36	2	2
	Left (I-E)	12,482	3.69	2.02	2	1
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	9,993	2.96	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	2,304	0.68	New	0	±0
	Equo-European Green Party (EQUO)	2,170	0.64	New	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	1,740	0.51	0.17	0	±0
	Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN-NOK)	1,733	0.51	0.47	0	±0
	Navarrese Freedom (Ln)	955	0.28	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	880	0.26	0.07	0	±0
	Blank ballots	6,610	1.96	0.56
Total		337,895	100.00		50	±0
Valid votes		337,895	98.75	0.02
Invalid votes		4,278	1.25	0.02
Votes cast / turnout		342,173	68.26	0.83
Abstentions		159,094	31.74	0.83
Registered voters		501,267
Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share
UPN			27.44%
GBai			15.83%
EH Bildu			14.25%
Podemos			13.67%
PSN-PSOE			13.37%
PP			3.93%
I-E			3.69%
C's			2.96%
Others			2.89%
Blank ballots			1.96%

Parliamentary seats
UPN			30.00%
GBai			18.00%
EH Bildu			16.00%
Podemos			14.00%
PSN-PSOE			14.00%
PP			4.00%
I-E			4.00%

References

1. "Barcina will not seek re-election in 2015" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-11-10.
2. "Requiem for the 8th Legislature of Navarre" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-02-15.
3. "Foral Law 16/1986, of 17 November, regulating elections to the Parliament of Navarre.".
4. "Organic Law 13/1982, of 10 August, of reintegration and improvement of the Foral Regime of Navarre.".
5. "UPN and PSN reach an agreement for a "solid" government in Navarre" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-06-18.
6. "UPN will govern in minority after breaking with the PSN" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-15.
7. "PSN-PSOE announces a Cabinet crisis in Navarre because of the budget cut" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-01.
8. "The UPN-PSN agreement breaks apart before its 1st birthday" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2012-06-15.
9. "The regional Parliament rejects the 2015 budgets and Navarre will run on an extended budget for a third time" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-11-25.
10. "Caja Navarra paid up to 2,680 euros to UPN officials for one-hour meetings" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-03-07.
11. "Caja Navarra's opaque bonuses trap Barcina" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-05.
12. "PSN's abstention saves Yolanda Barcina from the censure motion" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-04-18.
13. "Barcina wins absolute control over a divided UPN amidst the Caja Navarra's bonuses crisis" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-03-17.
14. "Nieves blames the counselor for "meddling" and continued "interference"" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-02-12.
15. "Former Treasury Director lit the fuse" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-02-13.
16. "PSN announces a motion of censura if Barcina does not call for a snap election" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-02-12.
17. "I told her that Foral Treasury data were not available for private use" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-02-14.
18. "The PSOE renounces to a censure motion in Navarre to prevent needing Bildu's support" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-03-05.
19. "Roberto Jiménez proposes a primary election and an extraordinary PSN party congress for this year, and announces he will not stand for election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-05-27.
20. "Senator María Chívite, new leader of the Navarrese Socialists" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-12-13.
21. "Barcina will lead UPN into the next election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-08-30.
22. "Esparza defeats Alberto Catalán and will be UPN candidate to the Government of Navarre" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-11-29.