United States presidential election in Alabama, 2004

United States presidential election in Alabama, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 9 0 Popular vote 1,176,394 693,933 Percentage 62.46% 36.84%

County Results   Kerry—80-90%   Kerry—70-80%   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%   Bush—80-90%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia, which was part of the 2004 presidential election. Voters chose 9 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Alabama was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 25.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this was a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. On election day, it trended Republican sharply, by a swing margin of 10.7% from the 2000 election. Bush won with over 60% of the vote, a first since 1984, and carried most of the counties and congressional districts. Historically, Alabama is a very reliable Republican state that a Democratic presidential nominee hasn't won since 1976.

Primaries

• Alabama Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double digit margin of victory. The final 3 poll averaged Bush leading 58% to 38%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,092,923.^[3] Kerry raised $514,589.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.^[5][6]

Analysis

Bush easily won every poll taken in the state prior to the election. Kerry won a small section of counties in the middle of the state, including winning Alabama's 7th congressional district. In 2000, the state voted for Bush 56%-41% by fifteen points; this year it voted for him by 25 points. ^[2]

With the exception of Oklahoma in 2004, the state was also Bush's best performance in the South, with not even Texas, Bush's home state, voting as red as Alabama.

CNN exit polls showed that almost 70% of male voters voted for Bush. Also, 99% of registered Republicans (which made up 48% of the population) voted for Bush. Also, 43% of the state describe themselves as evangelical Christians, and 88% of them voted for Bush. 62% of the state approved of Bush, and 60% approved of the decision to go to war in Iraq. 82% of white men and 79% of white women voted for Bush. Finally, 70% of voters over the age of sixty voted for Bush. Alabama was racially divided: Alabama Whites voted 80%-19% for Bush while Blacks voted 91%-9% for Kerry.^[7]

Results

United States presidential election in Alabama, 2004[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	1,176,394	62.5%	9
	Democratic	John Kerry	693,933	36.8%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	6,701	0.4%	0
	Independent	Michael Badnarik	3,529	0.2%	0
	Independent	Michael Peroutka	1,994	0.1%	0
	Write Ins		898	0.1%	0
Totals			1,883,449	100.00%	9
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)					55.5%

Results breakdown

By county

Bush won a majority of the counties.^[9]

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Autauga	23.7%	4,758	75.7%	15,196	0.6%	127
Baldwin	22.5%	15,599	76.4%	52,971	1.1%	750
Barbour	44.8%	4,832	54.7%	5,899	0.4%	46
Bibb	27.5%	2,089	72.0%	5,472	0.5%	39
Blount	18.3%	3,938	80.9%	17,386	0.8%	180
Bullock	68.1%	3,210	31.7%	1,494	0.3%	13
Butler	40.6%	3,413	59.2%	4,979	0.3%	24
Calhoun	33.3%	15,083	65.9%	29,814	0.8%	352
Chambers	41.0%	5,347	58.5%	7,622	0.5%	63
Cherokee	33.6%	3,040	65.5%	5,923	1.0%	86
Chilton	22.6%	3,778	76.9%	12,829	0.5%	86
Choctaw	45.7%	3,303	53.9%	3,897	0.4%	27
Clarke	40.6%	4,627	59.1%	6,730	0.3%	37
Clay	28.8%	1,893	70.3%	4,624	0.9%	59
Cleburne	24.0%	1,391	75.4%	4,370	0.6%	37
Coffee	25.4%	4,480	73.9%	13,019	0.7%	117
Colbert	44.3%	10,598	55.1%	13,188	0.6%	149
Conecuh	45.2%	2,719	54.3%	3,271	0.5%	31
Coosa	41.1%	2,055	58.1%	2,905	0.8%	41
Covington	23.4%	3,423	76.0%	11,119	0.6%	85
Crenshaw	30.9%	1,698	68.7%	3,777	0.5%	25
Cullman	22.9%	8,045	76.2%	26,818	0.9%	328
Dale	24.6%	4,484	74.7%	13,621	0.7%	126
Dallas	60.2%	11,175	39.5%	7,335	0.3%	63
DeKalb	29.4%	7,092	70.0%	16,904	0.6%	139
Elmore	22.6%	6,471	76.9%	22,056	0.5%	153
Escambia	30.8%	3,814	68.7%	8,513	0.5%	68
Etowah	35.9%	15,328	63.3%	26,999	0.8%	353
Fayette	30.1%	2,408	69.2%	5,534	0.7%	60
Franklin	36.8%	4,514	62.7%	7,690	0.5%	65
Geneva	20.1%	2,113	79.3%	8,342	0.6%	65
Greene	79.3%	3,764	20.2%	958	0.5%	26
Hale	58.3%	4,631	41.3%	3,281	0.4%	33
Henry	33.3%	2,452	66.3%	4,881	0.4%	28
Houston	25.3%	9,144	74.2%	26,874	0.5%	183
Jackson	42.5%	8,635	56.8%	11,534	0.7%	152
Jefferson	45.2%	132,286	54.2%	158,680	0.7%	2,001
Lamar	28.4%	1,956	71.1%	4,894	0.5%	35
Lauderdale	39.4%	14,628	59.7%	22,161	0.9%	318
Lawrence	44.0%	6,155	55.2%	7,730	0.8%	116
Lee	36.4%	16,227	62.7%	27,972	0.9%	411
Limestone	31.4%	9,126	67.8%	19,702	0.8%	245
Lowndes	70.3%	4,233	29.7%	1,786	0.0%	2
Macon	82.9%	7,800	16.7%	1,570	0.4%	37
Madison	40.2%	52,644	58.9%	77,173	0.9%	1,245
Marengo	48.8%	5,037	50.9%	5,255	0.3%	30
Marion	29.6%	3,808	69.8%	8,983	0.7%	84
Marshall	26.8%	8,452	72.3%	22,783	0.8%	256
Mobile	40.7%	63,732	58.7%	92,014	0.7%	1,025
Monroe	38.5%	3,666	61.2%	5,831	0.4%	37
Montgomery	50.4%	45,160	49.2%	44,097	0.4%	393
Morgan	30.1%	14,131	69.1%	32,477	0.8%	399
Perry	68.2%	3,767	31.5%	1,738	0.3%	18
Pickens	42.9%	3,915	56.6%	5,170	0.5%	47
Pike	36.5%	4,334	63.0%	7,483	0.6%	66
Randolph	31.3%	2,817	68.1%	6,127	0.6%	57
Russell	49.8%	8,375	49.6%	8,337	0.6%	97
St. Clair	18.7%	5,456	80.6%	23,500	0.7%	205
Shelby	18.8%	14,850	80.4%	63,435	0.8%	621
Sumter	70.4%	4,527	29.2%	1,880	0.4%	26
Talladega	38.0%	11,374	61.3%	18,331	0.6%	193
Tallapoosa	30.4%	5,451	69.0%	12,392	0.6%	109
Tuscaloosa	37.9%	26,447	61.4%	42,877	0.7%	506
Walker	31.8%	9,016	67.6%	19,167	0.6%	184
Washington	38.1%	3,145	61.4%	5,060	0.5%	42
Wilcox	67.5%	3,838	32.3%	1,834	0.2%	10
Winston	21.5%	2,236	78.0%	8,130	0.5%	57

By congressional district

Republican George W. Bush won every congressional district, except the 7th one, which is a Democratic stronghold.

District		Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st		64%	35%	Jo Bonner
2nd		67%	33%	Terry Everett
3rd		58%	41%	Mike D. Rogers
4th		71%	28%	Robert Aderholt
5th		60%	39%	Bud Cramer
6th		78%	22%	Spencer Bachus
7th		35%	64%	Artur Davis
[10]

Electors

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.^[11][12]

1. Beth Chapman
2. Marty Connors
3. Martha Hosey
4. Will Sellers
5. Mike Hubbard
6. Floyd Lawson
7. Elbert Peters
8. Bettye Fine Collins
9. Martha Stokes

References

2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
5. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
6. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
7. "CNN.com Election 2004". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
8. Archived May 13, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
9. "CNN.com Election 2004". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
10. "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
11. Archived March 26, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
12. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 8 October 2014.