United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004
Illinois
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 2,891,550 2,345,946
Percentage 54.82% 44.48%

County Results

  Kerry—<50%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—70-80%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Illinois was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 10.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A reliable blue state that no Republican has won since 1988, voted for Democratic Senator John Kerry in 2004 with almost 55% of the vote. Kerry's victory in Illinois was primarily due carrying 70% of the vote in the Chicago area's Cook County, where about 43% of Illinois' population resides. In the remaining 57% of the state, President George W. Bush won 54.6% (1,749,203 votes) to 45.3% (1,452,265 votes). President Bush was victorious in Chicago's collar counties, although the results in those counties were narrower than his victories downstate.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. Out of the 12 polls taken, Kerry won 9 of them with 52% or higher. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 54% to Bush with 41%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $6,892,187.[3] Kerry raised $7,100,400.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election season because it was expected not to be competitive and Kerry had a solid lead in the state.[5][6]

Analysis

Illinois has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992, all by fairly comfortable margins. The blue trend in the Land of Lincoln in presidential elections can be largely attributed to Cook County which contains heavily Democratic Chicago and makes up about 41.2% of the state's total population.[7] Additionally, the historically Republican "collar counties" near Chicago have become friendlier to Democrats at the national level. Kerry also performed well in St. Clair County home of East St. Louis. Kerry also performed well in Champaign, Aurora, and Carbondale.

Results

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,891,989 54.82% 21
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,346,608 44.48% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 32,452 0.62% 0
Independent write-ins 4,366 0.08% 0
Totals 5,275,415 100.00% 21
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 56.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adams 33.4% 10,511 66.2% 20,834 0.4% 132
Alexander 52.1% 2,016 47.3% 1,831 0.7% 26
Bond 43.8% 3,228 55.2% 4,068 1.0% 73
Boone 42.4% 8,286 57.0% 11,132 0.6% 123
Brown 34.6% 895 65.0% 1,679 0.4% 11
Bureau 44.5% 7,961 54.9% 9,822 0.7% 119
Calhoun 50.5% 1,367 48.7% 1,317 0.8% 22
Carroll 43.5% 3,537 55.7% 4,534 0.8% 64
Cass 43.7% 2,492 55.5% 3,163 0.8% 45
Champaign 50.4% 41,524 48.4% 39,896 1.2% 1,014
Christian 40.0% 6,112 59.2% 9,044 0.7% 111
Clark 35.9% 2,877 63.5% 5,082 0.6% 48
Clay 32.1% 2,101 67.4% 4,416 0.6% 37
Clinton 39.7% 6,797 59.7% 10,219 0.7% 115
Coles 42.0% 9,566 57.1% 13,015 0.9% 199
Cook 70.2% 1,439,724 29.1% 597,405 0.6% 12,305
Crawford 34.2% 3,194 65.2% 6,083 0.6% 55
Cumberland 34.4% 1,862 64.6% 3,497 1.1% 57
DeKalb 47.3% 19,263 51.7% 21,095 1.0% 410
De Witt 36.4% 2,836 63.1% 4,920 0.5% 42
Douglas 32.4% 2,767 66.8% 5,702 0.8% 71
DuPage 44.8% 180,097 54.4% 218,902 0.9% 3,447
Edgar 36.7% 3,093 62.4% 5,258 0.9% 78
Edwards 27.6% 930 71.7% 2,412 0.7% 22
Effingham 27.0% 4,388 72.3% 11,774 0.7% 116
Fayette 37.4% 3,571 61.6% 5,880 1.0% 98
Ford 29.5% 1,912 69.6% 4,511 0.9% 56
Franklin 45.6% 8,816 53.7% 10,388 0.8% 148
Fulton 53.3% 9,080 45.9% 7,818 0.8% 137
Gallatin 48.8% 1,573 50.2% 1,619 1.0% 33
Greene 40.5% 2,457 58.7% 3,559 0.9% 52
Grundy 42.7% 8,463 56.5% 11,198 0.9% 170
Hamilton 40.2% 1,814 58.8% 2,653 1.0% 47
Hancock 40.2% 3,975 59.0% 5,837 0.9% 87
Hardin 37.9% 923 61.6% 1,501 0.5% 13
Henderson 54.6% 2,269 44.7% 1,857 0.7% 27
Henry 47.1% 11,877 52.3% 13,212 0.6% 152
Iroquois 27.7% 3,832 71.7% 9,914 0.6% 89
Jackson 55.4% 14,300 43.3% 11,190 1.3% 336
Jasper 33.4% 1,781 66.1% 3,529 0.5% 26
Jefferson 39.6% 6,713 59.9% 10,160 0.4% 75
Jersey 45.3% 4,597 53.6% 5,435 1.0% 105
Jo Daviess 45.8% 5,311 53.3% 6,174 0.9% 99
Johnson 30.9% 1,813 68.2% 3,997 0.9% 55
Kane 44.2% 75,922 55.0% 94,359 0.8% 1,434
Kankakee 44.4% 20,003 54.9% 24,739 0.7% 294
Kendall 38.2% 12,374 61.0% 19,774 0.8% 254
Knox 54.2% 13,403 45.0% 11,111 0.8% 194
Lake 48.8% 134,352 50.5% 139,081 0.7% 1,862
LaSalle 47.8% 24,263 51.5% 26,101 0.7% 365
Lawrence 37.4% 2,518 61.9% 4,162 0.7% 49
Lee 40.4% 6,416 58.6% 9,307 1.0% 153
Livingston 35.1% 5,632 64.3% 10,316 0.6% 91
Logan 31.7% 4,273 67.7% 9,112 0.6% 82
McDonough 47.7% 7,119 51.3% 7,656 1.0% 154
McHenry 39.3% 50,330 59.7% 76,412 0.9% 1,206
McLean 41.7% 29,877 57.6% 41,276 0.7% 467
Macon 45.1% 23,341 54.3% 28,118 0.6% 287
Macoupin 49.1% 11,193 50.1% 11,413 0.8% 179
Madison 51.3% 63,399 48.0% 59,384 0.7% 895
Marion 44.7% 7,694 54.7% 9,413 0.7% 117
Marshall 42.6% 2,806 56.7% 3,734 0.7% 44
Mason 44.8% 3,215 54.4% 3,907 0.8% 61
Massac 37.8% 2,805 61.7% 4,578 0.6% 41
Menard 32.5% 2,137 67.1% 4,408 0.4% 29
Mercer 50.3% 4,512 49.1% 4,405 0.6% 57
Monroe 41.5% 6,788 57.8% 9,468 0.7% 114
Montgomery 46.2% 5,979 53.0% 6,851 0.8% 100
Morgan 37.2% 5,650 61.9% 9,392 0.9% 138
Moultrie 36.9% 2,388 62.3% 4,028 0.8% 50
Ogle 37.4% 9,018 61.9% 14,918 0.6% 155
Peoria 49.7% 41,121 49.6% 41,051 0.7% 599
Perry 45.8% 4,770 53.6% 5,589 0.6% 66
Piatt 36.4% 3,124 62.8% 5,392 0.8% 70
Pike 35.7% 2,849 63.1% 5,032 1.2% 99
Pope 37.7% 918 61.6% 1,500 0.7% 18
Pulaski 44.1% 1,372 55.3% 1,720 0.5% 16
Putnam 50.8% 1,704 48.4% 1,623 0.7% 25
Randolph 45.3% 6,771 54.0% 8,076 0.7% 109
Richland 32.6% 2,529 66.5% 5,153 0.9% 67
Rock Island 57.0% 39,880 42.4% 29,663 0.6% 429
St. Clair 55.1% 62,410 44.4% 50,203 0.5% 576
Saline 39.8% 4,697 59.7% 7,057 0.5% 60
Sangamon 40.5% 38,630 58.6% 55,904 0.9% 841
Schuyler 39.5% 1,594 59.6% 2,403 0.8% 34
Scott 35.2% 927 64.3% 1,696 0.5% 13
Shelby 35.4% 3,744 63.8% 6,753 0.8% 80
Stark 38.8% 1,189 60.1% 1,841 1.0% 31
Stephenson 41.8% 8,913 57.3% 12,212 0.9% 195
Tazewell 41.4% 25,814 57.8% 36,058 0.7% 466
Union 41.0% 3,735 58.5% 5,333 0.6% 51
Vermilion 43.7% 14,726 55.6% 18,731 0.8% 257
Wabash 29.2% 1,752 70.1% 4,212 0.7% 42
Warren 46.6% 3,938 52.9% 4,474 0.5% 45
Washington 36.8% 2,986 62.6% 5,072 0.6% 46
Wayne 25.8% 2,139 73.6% 6,102 0.6% 46
White 37.0% 3,071 62.4% 5,180 0.6% 50
Whiteside 51.1% 13,723 48.2% 12,959 0.7% 191
Will 46.9% 115,625 52.4% 129,098 0.7% 1,686
Williamson 39.0% 11,685 60.4% 18,086 0.6% 189
Winnebago 49.2% 59,740 50.1% 60,782 0.7% 903
Woodford 31.9% 6,005 67.5% 12,698 0.5% 99

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 17% 83% Bobby Rush
2nd 16% 84% Jesse Jackson Jr.
3rd 41% 59% Bill Lipinski
Dan Lipinski
4th 21% 79% Luis Gutierrez
5th 33% 67% Rahm Emanuel
6th 53% 47% Henry Hyde
7th 17% 83% Danny K. Davis
8th 56% 44% Phil Crane
Melissa Bean
9th 32% 68% Jan Schakowsky
10th 47% 53% Mark Kirk
11th 53% 46% Jerry Weller
12th 48% 52% Jerry Costello
13th 55% 45% Judy Biggert
14th 55% 44% Dennis Hastert
15th 59% 41% Timothy V. Johnson
16th 55% 44% Donald Manzullo
17th 48% 51% Lane Evans
18th 58% 42% Ray LaHood
19th 61% 39% John Shimkus

Electors

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Illinois. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry and Edwards:[9]

  1. Constance A. Howard
  2. Carrie Austin
  3. Shirley R. Madigan
  4. Tony Munoz
  5. James DeLeo
  6. Joan Brennan
  7. Vera Davis
  8. Linda Pasternak
  9. William Marovitz
  10. Dan Pierce
  11. Debbie Halvorson
  12. Molly McKenzie
  13. Beth Ann May
  14. Mary Lou Kearns
  15. Lynn Foster
  16. John Nelson
  17. Mary Boland
  18. Shirley McCombs
  19. Jerry Sinclair
  20. Barbara Flynn Currie
  21. John Daley

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=17
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ "Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau". Retrieved 2008-12-13.
  8. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  9. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/
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