United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004
Nevada
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 418,690 397,190
Percentage 50.5% 47.9%

County Results
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Nevada was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations who made predictions were split on who would win the state, with half saying it leaned Bush, or a red state and the others who implied it as a swing state. Only one county of the state, Clark County, home of Las Vegas and the most populous county of the state, went for John F. Kerry. Kerry's second best performance in the state was Washoe County, which he lost with 47% of the vote. Moreover, the statewide results here were very similar to the nationwide results in 2004, making it the bellwether of the country. Also, Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, except for 1976. Third party and independents made up over 1% of the vote, led by Ralph Nader.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Bush
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush only lost one pre-election poll throughout the general election. By the fall, Bush pulled away and reached 50%. However, in the very last week, some voters did change their minds as Bush's numbers went down slightly. The last 3 average polls showed Bush leading with 49% to 47%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,296,762.[3] Kerry raised $793,504.[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 3 times. Kerry visited the state 6 times. Both of them visited the same places: Las Vegas and Reno. Almost every week, the candidates combined spent over $1 million in advertising.[5]

Analysis

With Bush's victory in 2000 being less than 50%, he was vulnerable in the state. Bush's performance ended up being almost identical to the last election's results, but although he broke 50% this time, his margin of victory was slightly reduced.

Despite winning almost all of the counties, Bush wasn't dominant among the congressional districts, where he won two of the three, but the third congressional district with just 50% of the vote.

The only major difference in county results was Bush's big jump in rural Esmeralda County, which he won with over 76%. The only county Kerry won was Democratic leaning Clark County, the most populous county in the state, where Las Vegas is located. However he won the county with only about 52% of the vote, which was not enough to carry the state.

Results

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 418,690 50.47% 5
Democratic John Kerry 397,190 47.88% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 4,838 0.58% 0
N/A None of these Candidates 3,688 0.44% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 3,176 0.38% 0
American Independent Michael Peroutka 1,152 0.14% 0
Green David Cobb 853 0.10% 0
Totals 829,587 100.00% 5
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 50.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Others % Others #
Elko 19.9% 3,050 78.0% 11,938 2.1% 321
Lander 20.2% 414 78.0% 1,602 1.8% 37
Eureka 19.5% 144 77.4% 571 3.1% 23
Lincoln 20.4% 418 77.1% 1,579 2.4% 50
Esmeralda 20.6% 99 76.3% 367 3.1% 15
Humboldt 25.4% 1,361 72.6% 3,896 2.0% 110
Churchill 26.4% 2,705 71.5% 7,335 1.9% 197
Pershing 28.1% 538 70.0% 1,341 2.0 38
White Pine 28.5% 1,082 68.5% 2,604 3.1% 116
Lyon 32.9% 5,637 64.9% 11,136 2.2% 378
Douglas 34.6% 8,275 63.6% 15,192 1.8% 431
Nye 38.7% 5,616 58.5% 8,487 2.8% 407
Storey 40.2% 871 57.8% 1,253 2.0% 44
Mineral 40.0% 931 57.4% 1,336 2.6% 60
Carson City 40.9% 9,441 57.0% 13,171 2.1% 494
Washoe 47.0% 74,841 51.3% 81,545 1.7% 2,693
Clark 51.7% 281,767 46.5% 255,337 1.5% 8,293

By congressional district

Bush won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[6]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 42% 57% Shelley Berkley
2nd 57% 41% Jim Gibbons
3rd 50% 49% Jon Porter

Electors

Technically the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:[7]

  1. Joe Brown
  2. Milton Schwartz
  3. John Marvel
  4. Beverly Willard
  5. Paul Willis

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=32
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  7. ↑ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/12/13/state1909EST0163.DTL

See also

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